Jokow Widodo versus Prabowo Subianto - Photo: Privacy

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – PolMark Indonesia held a survey to calculate the electability of presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the 2019 Presidential Election. As a result, the electability of the pair Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin was superior to Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno.

Based on data collected on Wednesday (03/6), not only in the Indonesian PolMark survey, in the last four other surveys, the Widodo-Amin pair excelled compared to their opponent Subianto-Uno.

As of today, around 40 days of voting remain. The percentage of swing and undecided voters ranges from 5-33 percent in different survey institutions.

The last five surveys that measure the electability of the two candidates include PolMark Indonesia, Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) Denny JA, Cyrus Network, Indomatrik, and Celebes Research Center (CRC).

Polmark Indonesia’s survey results showed the pair Widodo-Amin won 40.4 percent of the vote ahead of its rival Subianto-Uno which only won 25.8 percent. The rest, 33.8 percent are undecided voters.

With electability still below 50 percent and the size of undecided voters, making incumbent positions not yet fully secure. While his opponents still have to work hard in order to catch up with the gap.

The survey, which was conducted from October 2018 to February 2019, was an aggregate of 73 electoral surveys. In 72 electoral districts involving 440 respondents while West Java District 3 in District 3 involved 880 respondents bringing the total to 32,560 respondents. Margin off errors in 72 electoral districts around 4.8% while for West Java 3.4%.

While the LSI Denny JA survey is the result of research for the last six months, namely August 2018 to February 2019. The survey was conducted using simulation ballot papers.

From August 2018 to January 2019, the electability dynamics of Widodo-Amin were 52.2 percent, 53.2 percent, 57.7 percent, 53.2 percent, 54.2 percent and 54.8 percent respectively. While for Subianto-Uno the dynamics moved at 29.5 percent, 29.2 percent, 28.6 percent, 31.2 percent, 30.6 percent, and 31.0 percent.

While in February 2019, 58.7 percent of respondents chose Widodo and 30.9 percent of respondents chose Subianto. Invalid vote 0.5 percent and 9.9 percent said they did not know or did not answer.

Data collection for the February 2019 survey was conducted on 18-25 February 2019. This study used a multistage random sampling method involving 1,200 respondents with a margin of error of around 2.9 percent.

Similar results are shown by Cyrus Network. The survey conducted on January 18-23 showed that Widodo-Amin’s electability in stable or loyal voters and difficult to change support reached 47.8 percent while Subianto-Uno was 29.7 percent.

The people whose choices can still change from Widodo reached 8.2 percent while Subianto 6.5 percent. Voters who did not answer the stability of their choices reached 1.5 percent for incumbents and 1 percent for their opponents.

In total, the Widodo-Amin pair still outperformed their opponents with electability of 57.5 percent against 37.2 percent. The distance is still around 20 percent.

Performance factors, popularization, and assertiveness are the main reasons for respondents to choose two presidential candidates. 38.4 percent of respondents made performance and 27.1 percent because of populist factors as the main reason for choosing Widodo.

While as many as 31.5 percent of respondents chose Subianto because they were considered firm, courageous, and nationalist.

Different results are indicated by Indomatrik. The survey was conducted from 21-26 January 2019 with a total of 1800 respondents indicating the electability difference between the two candidates was only slightly adrift.

Widodo-Amin received a vote of 47.97 percent while Subianto-Uno was 44.04 percent. Swing voters 7.99 percent. The survey results were far different from the release of most survey institutions which placed the difference between the two partners around 20 percent.

While the CRC survey showed the Widodo-Amin pair was 56.1 percent versus 31.7 percent belonging to Subianto-Uno. The percentage of swing voters is 12.2 percent.

In terms of regional basis, Subianto excelled on Sumatra Island with electability of 44.8 percent of the vote. While Widodo only won 37.6 percent of the votes and the remaining 17.6 percent did not answer / did not know. The voter base on the island of Sumatra amounted to 20.2 percent of the total national voters.

On the island of Java with a base of 55.8 percent, Widodo was ahead with 57.2 percent of the votes while Subianto was 30.5 percent. In other regions, Widodo even excelled with the acquisition of more than 60 percent of the vote.

The CRC survey was conducted on January 23-31 2019 involving 1,200 respondents in 34 provinces. The sampling method uses multistage random sampling with a margin of error of around 2.83 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.

With the high number of swing voters, the debate stage can be used by both candidates to gain support. The third debate on March 17 brought together Ma’ruf Amin versus Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno.

From the various results of this survey, it was interesting to see the percentage of swing and decided voters that were still high. Many observers say the possibility that they did not vote in the 2019 presidential election is very large.

Arya Fernandes, the political observer from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, assessed that the spread of false news or hoaxes ahead of the election could potentially increase the number of voters who did not vote.

Most of them are rational groups who are saturated with hoaxes and think the candidate’s war has reached the level of sickness. Therefore, they are lazy to use their voting rights, he added.

Fernandes said the hoax was also dangerous because it could lead to the emergence of public antipathy towards politics. Exposed to black and hoax campaigns, he said, made people lazy to engage in political activities.

Presidential and vice-presidential candidates and political parties must commit against hoaxes. The role of the community is also important, he said. While the General Election Commission must also try to increase voter participation, by ensuring voters get an invitation to vote.

Written by Lexy Nantu, Email: lexy@theinsiderstories.com