Developing Asia to Grow Just 0.1%, Indonesia Contraction 1.0%

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Developing Asia will barely grow in 2020 as containment measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic hamper economic activity and weaken external demand. The agency forecasts growth of 0.1 percent for the region in 2020, down from the 2.2 percent forecast in April and would...

Fitch Revises Down India’s Rating to BBB- with Outlook Negative

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Fitch Ratings revised down India’ outlook to BBB- from stable to negative, stating that the pandemic has significantly weakened this year' economic growth prospects and exposed the challenges associated with a high public-debt burden. The economic activity to contract by 5 percent in the fiscal...

The Deepest Global Recession in 75 years will be the Shortest on Record

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - All signs point to the second-quarter real GDP plunge in the United States (US) and European economies being one for the records—with double-digit quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) declines in the America, Eurozone, and United Kingdom (UK). Anticipating that growth will return in the third quarter...

Moody’s Downgrades Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust to B1

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Moody's has downgraded the corporate family rating of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT) to B1 from Ba3 with outlook negative. In addition, Moody's has downgraded the backed senior unsecured rating on the bond issued by LMIRT Capital Pte. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of LMIRT, to...

The Global Economy Outlook is Highly Uncertain

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts that the global economy will contract at least 6 percent in this year, suppressed by the COVID-19 pandemic. While, Indonesia' economy has the potential to contract 3.9 percent if there is second wave of...

Coronavirus, India’s Downgrade Push Potential “Fallen Angels” in Asia

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - As of June, number of companies most at risk of losing their investment-grade ratings, potential fallen angels, in Asia, excluding Japan and Australia, climbed to 21 from 8 at the end of 2019, due to lower earnings and cash flow caused by...

IHS Markit Revised up Japan’s Real GDP Growth for 2020

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - IHS Markit revised up its forecast of Japan’ real GDP growth to a contraction of 4.9 percent in 2020 before a rise of 1.8 percent in 2021, reflecting today’ government revision for the first quarter of 2020 and the government’ second economic package...

COVID-19 to Plunge Global Economy Into Worst Recession Since World War II

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - The swift and massive shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdown measures to contain it have plunged the global economy into a severe contraction and will shrink by 5.2 percent in this year. That would represent the deepest recession since the Second World...

United States’s GDP Revised Down to –8.8%, a Grudging Recovery

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - On 28 May, Bureau Economic Analysis reported that first quarter (1Q) GDP of America contracted at a 5.0 percent annual rate, revised down just slightly from the initial estimate of -4.8 percent. More important, detail surrounding the report compelled us to revise down our estimate...

Fewer APAC Projects, Infrastructure Companies Have High Exposure

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - High proportion (67 percent) of rated project and infrastructure companies in Asia Pacific continue to have low exposure to the coronavirus-related disruptions, supported by their essential nature and predictable cashflows. Our conclusions are contained in an update to its heat map for the...

Moody’s Affirms United Tractors Baa2 Rating, Outlook Stable

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Indonesian coal miner, PT United Tractors Tbk (IDX: UNTR)' Baa2 issuer rating. The outlook remains stable. The rating affirmation reflects United Tractors' strong balance sheet, leading market positions in Indonesia for its mining services and heavy equipment businesses, and...

APAC Dividends to Remain Resilient with a Projected Dip of 2% on Year

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - IHS Markit projects aggregate dividend payouts from corporations in Asia-Pacific (APAC) region to remain relatively resilient amid the COVID-19 pandemic, led by mainland China and Hong Kong SAR. The aggregate dividends in APAC are projected to be US$534.9 billion in 2020, down 2 percent...

The Office will Remain But Employee Experience will be Different

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Companies in the Asia Pacific are reviewing their commercial real estate strategy amid a lockdown policy imposed by the government and work-from-home arrangements due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Office rental activity globally decreased by 22 percent compared to the first quarter (1Q) of 2019...

Smartphone Market Posts a New Record Low in Shipments Impacted by COVID-19

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - In the first quarter of 2020, the Indonesia smartphone market shipped 7.5 million units, declining by 7.3 year over year (YoY) and -24.1 percent quarter over quarter (QoQ), hitting a new record low in the last two years, according to IDC’...

Moody’s Revises Outlook on Indika Energy, ABM Investama to negative

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the Ba3  corporate family rating of PT Indika Energy Tbk (IDX: INDY). The agency also affirmed the Ba3 ratings on the US$285 million backed senior secured notes due 2023 issued by Indo Energy Finance II B.V., the $265 million backed...

Emerging Market Issuers Take Hit from COVID-19 as Global Recession Deepens

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - The global recession is deepening as coronavirus-related restrictions exact a high economic cost and expect the real GDP to contract by 1.0 percent for Group of 20 emerging market (EM) economies in this year. We have already seen a large number of downgrades among...

IHS: Recovery in Global Economic will take Two to Three years

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - The global economy is in the midst of the worst downturn since the 1930s. China’ real GDP plunged a record annual rate of 33.8 percent in the first quarter (1Q) of 2020. On a comparable basis, IHS Markit estimates that US real GDP...

Moody’s Affirms Ratings of Four Indonesian Financial Institutions

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Moody's Investors Service affirmed the Baa2 long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings of leasing companies, PT Astra Sedaya Finance (ASF), Federal International Finance (FIF), and PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk (IDX: ADMF). The agency has also affirmed the Baa2 long-term local and foreign currency deposit...

ADB: COVID-19 Economic Impact Could Reach $8.8T Globally

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees that COVID-19 pandemic would result in global losses of up to US$8.8 trillion, or 9.7 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), in the absence of any policy response, says ADB's Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada, last weekend....

Indonesia Road Freight Transport Market to Grow Over 9% During 2020 – 2025

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - The Indonesia road freight transport market is expected to grow above 9 percent during 2020 - 2025, said Reportlinker in the latest report. The demand for trucking services in the country is expected to increase, majorly due to the increasing international freight movement...

State Own Enterprises in the Middle of COVID-19

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - The pandemic has highlighted the role of the public sector in saving lives and livelihoods. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are part of that effort. They can be public utilities that provide essential services. Or public banks that provide loans to small businesses. But some...

BI: COVID-19 Pressures on the Financial Stability Increases

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Pressure on the financial stability system (FSS) is expected to increase as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, said Bank Indonesia (BI) in the latest report. The widespread of the virus to many countries, including to Indonesia, poses a threat to global and...

Global Pandemic Strikes Indonesia’s Aviation Industry

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - The global pandemic is an extraordinary challenge for the global aviation industry. Airport Council International (ACI) director, Angela Gittens said on April 3, that aircraft passenger traffic in the world in 2020 was initially estimated to reach 9.5 billion passengers, up 4.39 percent compared...

PBoC Policy: How Many More Rate Cuts to Come

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - People's Bank of China (PBoC) cut its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) to 3.85 percent from initially 4.05 percent as the country’ economy contracted for the first time in four decades. The central bank also cut its five-year rate to 4.65 percent...

Global Economy: After Worst Recession in 1930s, What Path Will the Recovery Take?

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - IHS Markit is looking past the horrific second-quarter drop in real GDP, and a deeper recession in 2020 than in 200 8 – 2009, to assess the shape and strength of the recovery. A V-shaped recovery in the manufacturing sectors seems plausible, once...

Asian Consumer Sentiment Remains Resilient Amid the COVID-19

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Asian countries are absorbing the COVID-19 pandemic at markedly different rates, with the impact just beginning to bite in India and Indonesia even as China sees new cases stabilize and local transmission is contained. Over the last month, McKinsey has twice taken pulse surveys...

US, Eurozone’s Economies Need Three Years to Recover

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - The United States (US) and Eurozone’ economies could take until 2023 to recover from the impact of the COVID-19, according to a new report from McKinsey & Co. It said, if the public health response, including social distancing and lockdown measures, is initially successful...

COVID-19 Recession to be Deeper than 2008 – 2009

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - This interim global forecast is the second prepared in March and is much more pessimistic than our March 17 regularly scheduled outlook. It is based on major downgrades to forecasts of the United States (US) economy and oil prices. The risks remain overwhelmingly on...

Countries Must Act Now to Mitigate Economic Shock of COVID-19

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), already struggling with international trade tensions and COVID-19, now face a global shock as the pandemic hits major economies around the world. The countries must act quickly, cooperatively, and at scale. The virus that triggered...

US Scramble for Resources in COVID-19 Response

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) - Based on new IHS Markit data, the United States (US) shortage of medical supplies is being exacerbated by trade disruptions from the COVID-19. On a volume basis, China accounted for over one-third (34 percent) of US imports of critical medical supplies in...