JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Lembaga Survey Indonesia (LSI) released a survey last November, in which the Joko Widodo – Ma’ruf Amin pair earned 53.2 percent and Prabowo Subianto -Sandiaga Uno 31.2 percent, respondents who did not make a choice was 15.6 percent for the 2019 presidential election.
These results indicate a large difference between the two sets of partners, but the socialization and campaign still has another four months to run. This number will, of course, continue to fluctuate.
During the three month campaign period, the two camps continued to engage in strategies to win votes with certain pockets of voters, such as on Java island.
Nationally, the number of votes cast in Java in the 2014 presidential election reached 108,904,238 with details of Jakarta 7,096,168 voters, West Java 33,045,082 voters, Central Java 27,385,217 voters, Yogyakarta 2,752,275 voters, East Java 30,639,897 voters, and Banten 7,985,599 voters.
Of the total voters in Indonesia (plus overseas voters) 190,307,134. It means, around 58 percent of voters are in Java.
Looking at the configuration of these voters, vice presidential candidate Uno plans to move the winning team headquarters to Central Java in January. In fact, the province has been known as the enclosure of the Indonesian Demokrasi Perjuangan party.
While the national campaign team of Widodo-Amin focused on West Java, which was the basis of the parties supporting Subianto. The plan actually aims to gain optimal votes in the region, which is the base of the the incumbent camps.
The smart-strategy is also based on vote mapping in the 2014 presidential election, in which Widodo – Jusuf Kalla gained 70.9 million votes, while Subianto – Hatta Radjasa got 62.5 million votes. The difference in votes between Widodo’s victory over Subianto is quite large at 8.4 million votes.
From the total difference, the disparity of 6.5 million votes was originally from Central Java. Widodo won a landslide victory in Central Java with the acquisition of 12.9 million votes or 66.6 percent. While Prabowo only gained 6.4 million votes or 33.4 percent.
In the 2018, Central Java local election, Sudirman Said – Ida Fauziah succeeded in gaining 41.22 percent of the vote, while the previously estimated Ganjar Pranowo – Taj Yasin of 70 percent of votes, finally only slightly above 58.78 percent.
From the internal survey, Widodo – Amin electability lead is indeed thin. However, Subianto – Uno gained significant additional voice support in several regions such as Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi, Banten, Jakarta and West Java. While in East Java, the difference in the acquisition of votes is thin as the 2014 presidential election. It means, the decisive field is in Central Java.
In contrast, the Widodo – Amin team also targeted West Java, the party base for Subianto’s supporters. In the previous presidential election, the contender was superior with 14.1 million votes or 59.8 percent. While the incumbent 9.5 million votes or 40.2 percent.
There are several regions that will get the attention of the Widodo camp outside Java, including Jambi, Riau and Banten. In three regions, based on the team’s internal survey, Widodo – Amin pair lost to Subianto – Uno.
Responding to these votes fluctuations, the Widodo – Amin’ team conducted an evaluation and discussed the progress of the movement during the three-month campaign period. Some evaluation points that are under pressure from the campaign team:
- More penetration in the “hard base” area of Subianto – Uno, such as Banten, West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Riau, and some areas outside Java.
- improve coordination between presidential and vice presidential candidates and coalition parties.
- improve the political communication strategy of Widodo – Amin.
Still a matter of the 2019 presidential election, the General Election Commission has issued a policy of election boxes made from watertight cartons or called cardboard boxes. The use of this cardboard box is allegedly more cost-effective than aluminum.
The initial budget ceiling was Rp948 billion (US$65.38 million), then when it was auctioned, the need was Rp298 billion. If compared with the procurement of aluminum boxes, it is three times more expensive than a cardboard box.
The decision drew criticism from various parties. Besides being prone to carelessness, cardboard boxes also have the potential to not be resistant to extreme weather in cold areas, especially when exposed to rain.
In addition, at the beginning of last December the Indonesian public was shocked by the cases of electronic identity card, which were found scattered in several areas such as 1,706 in East Jakarta, Serang and Bogor, West Java.
In Bogor, there were around 6,000 cards that fell from trucks on Saturday (05/26). While in Serang, Banten, there were 2,800 cards scattered in the bush due to negligence from individual staff.
Written by Daniel Deha, Email: email@example.com