Parties chairman after lottery number at General Election Commission Office - Photo by KPU

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – PolMark Indonesia survey on Oct. 7, 2018 to Feb. 12, 2019 reported that the electability of Joko Widodo – Ma’ruf Amin was only 14.6 percent superior to Prabowo Subianto – Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno. The electability of incumbents was 40.4 percent, compared to 25.8 percent of the opposition.

“Based on the results of our survey, the electability distance of the two candidates is small because there are still 33.8 percent of potential voters who have not chosen their political choices,” said PoleMark Indonesia Founder Eep Saefulloh Fatah on Wednesday (03/13).

He revealed, with an electability level of only 40.4 percent, Widodo’ position is in a dangerous condition. Based on his experienced, if the electability of incumbents was far below 50 percent, his position was very risky.

The indicator of incumbent position is very vulnerable, he added, it can also be seen from the level of voter loyalty, namely the Widodo’ voter who has been solid with only 31.5 percent of his choice, compared to 20.5 percent belonging to Subianto. This was supported by the lack of solid party support cadres in each camp which in the survey was still high.

The survey showed that there was 5.9 percent of Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan party’ cadres who supported Subianto and 19.5 percent had not made a choice. The same thing in the Persatuan Pembangunan party was 30 percent, Nasional Demokrat 24.1 percent, Kebangkitan Bangsa 15.7 percent, Golongan Karya 30.6 percent, Perindo 27.9 percent, Hanura 24.7 percent, PSI 12.9 percent and PKPI 29.7 percent the cadres support Subianto-Uno pair.

The opposition coalition is also the same: there is 11 percent of Gerindra cadres who support Widodo – Amin, Demokrat 28.5 percent, Amanat Nasional party 25 percent, Kesejahteraan Sosial 15.7 percent, and Berkarya 14.9 percent.

Judging from its demographic, incumbent are still superior in a number of segments ranging from gender, age, to socio-economic status. The competition is rather thin only in the middle to an upper-income segment where Widodo gets 36.5 percent of the vote, while Subianto has electability of 29 percent of the votes, he added.

Respondents also think there are three urgent problems that are currently being made. The economic improvement chosen by 18.5 percent of the people, the employment issues chosen were 15.8 percent of the people and the road improvement with 13.9 percent of respondents.

The survey conducted by PolMark took 32,560 respondents from 73 electoral districts which included 172,008,099 voters or 92.9 percent of 2019 Election voters. Sampling was done using a multistage random sampling method with a margin of error of around 4.8 percent.

Parliamentary Threshold as Political Party Nightmares

Meanwhile, based on Konsep Indonesia (Konsepindo) survey of 1.200 respondents indicated that only four political parties would qualify in the 2019 General Election. This was the impact of the new rules on elections contained in Article 222 of Law Number 7 Year 2017.

In the article, it is stated that political parties must be able to fulfill the 4 percent parliamentary threshold quota, which was previously only 3.5 percent. Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan leads with an electability rate of 26 percent. Second position is occupied by Gerindra with electability of 12.8 percent, Golkar followed with 9.3 percent of votes and Kebangkitan Bangsa of 6.2 percent.

Then, there were three parties whose electability was around 3 percent: Demokrat with electability 3.9 percent, Amanat Nasional 3.8 percent, and Nasdem 3.2 percent. While Kesejahteraan Sosial and Persatuang Pembangunan party electability was 2.8 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.

Perindo and Hanura were recorded at 1.2 percent. Other parties such as Garuda, PSI, Berkarya, PBB, and PKPI are still under one percent.

Head of the Political Research of Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia Syamsudin Haris assessed that the number of political parties in Indonesia has made competition very tight. So, he is not surprised if there are many political parties that do not qualify for the 2019 election.

But not all political parties enjoy electoral incentives from the 2019 presidential election. Only Demokrasi Indonesi Perjuangan and Gerindra get the coattail effect because they are the main bearers in the presidential election.

Even so, there are still opportunities for political parties to be able to pass the parliamentary threshold. The number of undecided voters reached 26 percent. Political parties can work on this group for the rest of the campaign time, he added.

Konsepindo conducted a survey of 1,200 respondents on February 17-24, 2019. Respondents were selected by multistage random sampling. The level of margin of error in this survey is around 2.9 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. Quality control is carried out on 20 percent of samples.

Written by Lexy Nantu, Email: lexy@theinsiderstories.com