Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto - Photo by President Office

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Poltracking Indonesia conducted a survey on Jan. 27 to Feb. 3, 2018 using a ’stratified multistage random sampling’ method. The number of samples in this survey included 1,200 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%, at a 95 per cent confidence level.

This survey cluster reaches 34 provinces across Indonesia, proportionally based on data of the most recent voting population, while stratification of this survey by the proportion of voting of each sex.

The main findings and analysis of the results of this survey are as follows:

Chairman Poltracking Hanta Yuda AR

The survey reveals that there are effectively just two figures with ‘two digits of electability’, namely incumbent President Joko Widodo and his former rival in the 2014 presidential election, Prabowo Subianto. The trends and electability gap of these two figures are 20 – 33 per cent for Subianto and 45 – 57 per cent for Widodo.

Apart from these two figures, the legacy political elite, such as figures who have appeared in previous elections as well as new figures emerging in electoral dynamics the last three years reveal electability of no more than 5 per cent.

However, it is important to note is that although Widodo’s electability is well above that of Subianto, with 20 per cent or more, showing Widodo as the strongest candidate, he is still to be considered ‘unsafe’ as an incremental candidate because his electability is still below 60 per cent.

Both these figures are related to the vice presidential candidate they select. This survey shows six figures (other than Muhammad Jusuf Kalla, a generally-considered incompetent vice president) with electability above 5 per cent, with a significant gap compared to other names, namely, former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, Gatot Nurmantyo, Anies Rashid Baswedan, Ridwan Kamil, Muhaimin Iskandar (Cak Imin), and Khofifah Indar Parawansa.

For example, in the question of 10 vice presidential candidates circulating among the public, Harimurti (12.4 per cent), Baswedan (12.1 per cent), Nurmantyo (11.4 per cent), Kamil (10.4 per cent), Cak Imin (7.0 per cent), and Parawansa (5.5 per cent) are figures with election numbers above 5 per cent.

However, if Jusuf Kalla is included in the survey, he is still the strongest, well above other vice presidential candidates.

In a semi-open question with 28 candidates for Vice President, there are 7 names above 4 per cent, with Muhammad Jusuf Kalla (15.9 per cent) far in the lead with the highest number, followed by Nurmantyo (7.9 per cent), Harimurti (7.6 per cent), Baswedan (7.5 per cent), Kamil (6.1 per cent), Cak Imin (5.2 per cent) and Parawansa (4.4 per cent).

Thirdly, based on existing Indonesian constitutional law and party politics in recent months, the analysis of this survey has focused on the potential of 4 potential scenarios of a candidate coalition.

Based on the ‘rule of the game’ law currently in effect in Indonesia, this scenario is based on the legal construction of presidential candidacy after the Constitutional Court’s decision regarding the 20% seat nomination threshold and the constitutional provisions (Article 6A) where candidates can only be nominated by their respective political parties.

Meanwhile, based on the movement of party politics, four nomination scenarios, based on the political support of parties for the candidates for vice president where until the survey was released, show four parties (Golkar, PPP, Nasdem, Hanura) which have committed themselves to support Jokowi as the 2019 presidential candidate, along with other non-governmental parties (Gerindra, PKS and Democrats) who take a political stance to present other figures than Jokowi. PAN and PKB are still uncommitted.

Based on this analysis, scenario one projects three axis coalition couples for president – vice president in a coalition: Widodo axis, Subianto shaft, Yudhoyono axis. Scenario two is the occurrence of two coalition axes where the coalition shaft of Widodo and Yudhoyono go head-to-head against the Prabowo coalition shaft.

Scenario three, on the contrary, has Widodo’s coalition shaft confronting the coalition shaft of Subianto and Yudhoyono. Finally, the fourth scenario is the joining of the Widodo and the Subianto shaft against the axis of Yudhoyono.

Fourth, the survey also revealed that if the legislative elections were addressed during the survey, PDI-P (26.5 per cent) was the most popular party, followed by Gerindra (13.4 per cent), and Golkar Party (11.3 per cent). Electability of parties outside these three stands below 10 per cent.

The PDI-P in this case is potentially the strongest as the winner of the 2019 election, because in addition to having a strong association of Widodo, the incumbent president, the 2019 election of the legislative and presidential candidates creates a ‘coattail effect’, that is the strong potential of voters to stand with party bearers / supporters.

Another thing to note in the results of this survey is how party electability for the second and third positions still ranges from Gerindra or Golkar Party as their electability is below the margin of error of 2.83 per cent. Meanwhile, the third and fourth positions are between the Democratic Party (6.6 per cent) or PKB (6.0 per cent), as the difference in election figures of those two parties is no more than 1 per cent, well below the survey’s margin of error.

The results of this survey indicate that parties that do not pass the 4 per cent parliamentary threshold are still difficult to predict because in addition to the 15 per cent of undecided voters, the electoral dynamics of the president election and political issues one year ahead will be very influential on the rise and fall of party votes.

Fifth, the survey found that voter turnout and distribution is still very fluid. This survey recorded 53.2 per cent of the public said it is still possible to change its political choice in the upcoming 2019 election.

In relation to this matter, voter certainty will only be determined during the Campaign Period (20.7 per cent), After Official Candidate Determination (18.7 per cent), and Election Day (17.4 per cent).

However, potential voter participation is high enough that as many as 78.8 per cent of the public will exercise their voting right by voting in the 2019 general election. The survey also shows that of the three dimensions of the groups of factors affecting voters, Candidates Seeking Candidates (19.4 per cent), Candidate Performance and Experience (19.1 per cent), and Candidate Personal Characters (17.7 per cent) are the three background factors that most influence the public choice.

Sixth, the survey found that public satisfaction with the performance of the government of President Widodo and Vice President Kalla was 68.9 per cent. Quantitatively, the satisfaction rate (job approval rating) is quite high because it is above 60 per cent.

One of the factors that explains the satisfaction rate is Road and Bridge Infrastructure Development (66.5 per cent) and Affordable Health Services (61.2 per cent) as among the most successful issues handled by Widodo-Kalla regime.

In relation to the performance of the cabinet, Susi Pudjiastuti (21.3 per cent) and Parawansa (10.6 per cent) are the two Ministerial Level Officials rated by the best performing public. On the other hand, as many as 45.9 per cent of the public gave their consent (combined between ‘strongly agree’ and ‘moderately agree’) with the reshuffle/change of ministers in the working cabinet.

Seventh, the survey shows that the Indonesian Armed Forces (66.4 per cent) became the most trusted public institution, followed by the President (65.2 per cent) and the Corruption Eradication Commission (64.4 per cent). All three institutions hold a high level of confidence compared with other institutions (more than 50 percent).

Similarly, the public expresses satisfaction (62.2 per cent) with the Indonesian Armed Forces, followed by the President (57.7 per cent) and the Corruption Eradication Commission (56.0 per cent).

Related to the performance of the House of Representatives, while 42.3 per cent of the public agreed to Bambang Soesatyo being appointed to replace Setya Novanto as Chairman of the House of Representatives of Golkar Party, the findings of this survey show that a larger percentage of the public is not satisfied with the four main functions of the Parliament.

Of the four main functions of the House of Representatives presented in questions to the public, public satisfaction reached 34.0 per cent in drafting of laws, 31.6 per cent on the Supervision of the Government, and 29.5 per cent on the Absorption of Public Aspirations and the Formulation of the State Budget Plan.