President Joko Widodo engages in light discussion with the Head of Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto at State Palace last year - Photo by President Office

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) survey released a national electability survey of presidential and vice-presidential pair for the 2019 Presidential Election. As a result, Joko Widodo – Ma’ruf Amin won with 54.9 percent, while Prabowo Subianto – Sandiaga Uno was 32.1 percent.

“The respondent was given the question ‘If the presidential election is held today, who will be elected presidential candidate?’ As a result 54.9 percent of respondents answered Widodo-Amin, 32.1 percent chose Subianto-Uno, and 13.0 percent said they did not know,” said SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani when describing the survey results in Jakarta on Sunday (03/10).

According to him, even though 13 percent of the undecided voters chose Subianto – Uno, the incumbent pair still excelled above opposition. He also said that 87 percent of the electorate candidates had already been going to elect presidential candidates.

“The difference between the two is 23 percent, if 13 percent are all undecided to Subianto-Uno, then Widodo-Amin is still superior at around 6 percent,” he stated.

However, he stressed that the opportunities of the two candidates are still wide open in the oresidential elections which will be held on April 17, 2019. Irvani explained, the electability survey relied heavily on the political preferences of the people who kept changing because of the issues that took place during the campaign period.

Both partners can certainly use the results of research to maintain excellence or catch up, he added. According to him, the issue that developed in mid-January 2019 also gave different preferences to the two sides of the candidate pair.

It was noted, there were three issues that asked the respondents, namely the container of foreign ballots, the General Election Commission (GEC) was not neutral, and the cardboard ballot boxes.

Regarding containers for foreign ballots, 1.3 percent of Widodo  – Amin’ voters still believe in the development of the issues that occur and 75.4 percent of voters do not believe. Then, Subianto – Uno voters who believed 9.1 percent and 48.9 percent of voters expressed their distrust.

Then, the issue of the GEC which was not neutral, Widodo voters who believed were 8.3 percent and those who did not believe reached 66.3 percent. On the contrary, Subianto’ voters who believed could reach 22.2 percent and unbelieving voters by 45.7 percent.

Although the pattern is the same, the difference between the two camps begins to appear. Moreover, the issue of cardboard ballot boxes, the SMRC survey stated that Widodo voters who believed reached 30.0 percent and those who did not believe 43.3 percent. For Subianto voters, his trust is greater, reaching 47.1 percent and his distrust is only 29.0 percent.

The survey was conducted to 1.620 respondents selected during Jan. 24 to 31, 2019, by multistage random sampling. Interviews are conducted face to face. The margin of error in this survey is approximately 2.65 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.

Earlier, on Tuesday, a survey conducted by the Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) Denny JA also showed the electability of Widodo-Amin won 58.7 percent of the vote. The gain was superior to 27.8 percent of Subianto-Uno who only won 30.9 percent of the vote. The rest, 9.9 percent did not know or not answer.

In the six months of the campaign, September 2018 – February 2019, the Widodo-Amin always excelled more than 20 percent. The electability of incumbents is above 50 percent while Subianto-Uno is around 31 percent.

The face-to-face survey this time uses ballots and there are 0.5 percent of invalid ballots or mistakes in voting. The survey was conducted on February 18-25 2019 involving 1.200 respondents. The method uses multistage random sampling, margin of error is 2.9 percent.

While different results were shown by the Survey and Polling Indonesia agency which noted the electability of Widodo began to be overtaken by Subianto. Widodo-Amin pocketed a vote of 49 percent, while Subianto-Uno had 41 percent electability.

“Slowly the electability of the Subainto-Uno crawled after Widodo-Amin with a difference of 8 percent,” said the Director Igor Dirgantara in Jakarta on March 7.

With the results of electability like this, said Dirgantara, Widodo’ position as incumbent is very dangerous to win the 2019 Presidential Election contestation. Especially with electability under 50 percent Widodo’s position is still unsafe.

SPIN conducted a survey in the period from December 27, 2018 to January 8, 2019, involving 1.213 respondents. The survey uses a multistage random sampling method with a margin of error of 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

According to Drigantara, the economic issue that made electability Widodo slowly overtaken by Subianto and incumbents lost momentum due to dissatisfaction with economic problems.

In the closed question about the three things that most people worry about, the problem of employment and unemployment is at the top (68 percent), followed by concerns about rising prices of basic necessities (64 percent), and corruption (52 percent).

While the two main concerns of the public about economic problems, 73 percent of respondents answered the rising prices of basic necessities, followed by employment and unemployment problems by 44 percent.

As many as 59 percent of respondents realized there was a price of food and other basic necessities. While 37 percent rated the same and only 4 percent answered the price dropped.

He said, economic issues were indeed the main focus of Subianto-Uno in his vision and mission, programs and campaigns. It is the problem that can make electability of opposition slowly pursue incumbents.

The National Winning Body of Subianto – Uno appreciated the results of this survey and believed that the victory of opposition won the contestation. “This 41 days ahead is very likely to surpass Joko Widodo,” said the natioanal team Saleh Partaonan Daulay.

He stated that based on his internal survey results, Widodo and Subianto’ electability difference had also been very thin. He also said that his party continued to boost the national wining team’s political machinery, coalition, volunteers, until sympathizers so that Subianto-Uno’s electability would continue to increase.

“Our survey results have been thin, we believe Subianto can defeat Widodo. So we remain enthusiastic, never loose, how to sell programs that are visionary, which are better for the community,” he said.

Written by Lexy Nantu, Email: lexy@theinsiderstories.com

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