The Jakarta Composite Index fell by 0.36 percent to 6,250.26 and hit its week-lowest, along with Rupiah that weakened by 0.23 percent in the middle of Prabowo Subianto' lawsuit at the Constitutional Court - Photo: Special

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Two pairs of 2019′ presidential and vice presidential candidates Joko Widodo – Maruf Amin and Prabowo Subianto -Sandiaga Uno’s electability have been gauged by a number of pollsters .

After their registration to the General Election Commision (GEC), at least three pollsters released the result of their surveys. The three pollsters are Alvara, Lembaga Survey Indonesia (LSI) and Y-Publica .
According to Executive Director of Y-Publica Rudi Hartono on Monday (03/09), the electability of Widodo-Amin pair recorded 52.7 percent ,while the electability of Subianto-Uno is 28.6 percent, .
Other survey institution LSI reported Widodo-Maruf hold 52.2 percent votes while their contender Subianto-Uno 29.5 percent and undecided voters 18.3 percent. Alvara research also showed voters for Widodo-Amin higher than Subianto-Uno voters 53.5 percent versus 35.2 percent and undecided voters 11.2 percent.

A recent survey by Saiful Mujani Research Consulting also shows that the Widodo chances of being elected are is still ahead Subianto 53.8 per cent versus 18.5 per cent.

There is no doubt that 2018 is quickly turning into a ‘political year’. As many as 171 regional elections – for provincial governors and regency heads – will be held throughout the year; the result of these could lay out a clearer landscape defining political mapping ahead of the Presidential Election in 2019.

Based on the Constitutional Court verdict of a threshold for parties that can propose a presidential candidate has limited the number of presidential candidates. This implies that no single party can propose a presidential candidate.

The majority of seats in the House of Representatives is held by PDIP with 19.4 percent. The second-largest seat holder is Golkar Party, with 19.4 percent, Gerindra with 13 percent, Democratic 10.9 percent, PAN 8.6 percent, PKB 8.4 percent, PKS 7.1 percent, PPP 7 percent, Nasdem 6.4 percent and Hanura 2.9 percent.

Based on the existing distribution of seats in the Parliament, the parties that are supporting the Widodo government – PDIP, Golkar, Nasdem, PKB, PPP, and Hanura have a combined total of 60.3 per cent of seats.

While, the parties that support Subianto are Gerindra, PKS, PAN and Demokrat party with a combined parliamentary holding of 39.7 per cent.

However, Mohamad Sobari, a political observer, said that despite intense political competition, Indonesian society is becoming more mature in general, in regard to political leaders. This was clearly seen in last year’s Jakarta gubernatorial election. Some sections of the society might try to provoke others with race or religious issues; however, the general public responded with a more cautious, matured appraisal.

Although the political tension in Jakarta’s gubernatorial election last year was under control, there is no guarantee that there will be no political and security upheavals in the upcoming regional elections. Therefore, there is a need for the government to take steps to mitigate unrest and social disintegration because democracy has its limits. These include limiting provocations in social media and suppressing any ‘hoax’ news that could spark social unrest.

General election will be held in Indonesia on April 17, 2019. For the first time, the President and members of People’s Consultative Assembly will be elected on the same day.

The campaign period is tentatively scheduled to take place from Oct. 18, 2018 to April 13, 2019. Determination of political parties eligible to participate in the election is due to be announced on March 1, 2018.

TIS Intelligence Team, Email: theinsiderstories@gmail.com

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