JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! The week ahead includes a key Brexit deadline and on-going United States – China tariff developments, with US tariffs set to rise to from 25 to 30 percent on US$250 billion of Chinese goods pending the outcome of talks this week.
Then, signs of current tariff and trade war impact will be gleaned not only from China’ GDP (today), trade and industrial production data, due out during the week, but also from US production and manufacturing output data.
Both economies also release retail sales data, which will be eyed for signs of the extent to which trade wars could be spilling over to weaker household spending. As such, the data will help guide the next policy moves in terms of stimulus both in the US and China.
US retail sales in September will release on Wednesday. Then, US business prospects in October by the Philadelphia Fed and US industrial production in September on Thursday (10/17).
After tariffs, the next key area of uncertainty in the global economy is arguably Brexit, and the coming week could see some major developments. From Europe, European Union (EU) industrial production in August will out today, the results of a survey of German economic sentiments in October on Tuesday, and British’ inflation rate in September and EU trade balance in September.
In Asia, Japan’ inflation rate in September and China’ economic growth rate in the third quarter of 2019, Chinese industrial production and Chinese retail sales in September on Friday. While, notable releases include China’ inflation and fixed asset investment, Singapore’ GDP, US housing starts and Japan’s inflation update.
Monetary policy action comes from central bank meetings in Singapore and South Korea, plus the minutes from the Reserve Bank of India’s prior meeting. In Indonesia, on Oct. 15 Statistics Indonesia release the September trade balance.
In the same day, Bank Indonesia (BI) will announce Indonesian foreign debt statistics for the August period, also the results of the third quarter banking survey this year. Then on Oct. 16, the central bank to inform the credit growth and the results of banking surveys.
Last week, EU imposed tariffs as high as 66.4 percent on steel road wheels from China. The duties punish Chinese exporters of steel wheels for vehicles including cars. Chinese exporters’ combined share of the EU market for steel road wheels doubled to 5.3 percent last year.
The Indonesian government aims to file a case against the EU to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in early November over palm oil, said Wisnu Wardhana, foreign trade director general at the trade ministry. While, President Joko Widodo has nominated former minister Mari Elka Pangestu as a World Bank bigwig.
On Friday, Indonesian Rupiah jumped 0.16 percent to 14,123 compared to the US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closet at 6,105.8 or up 1.36 percent compared yo last weekend.
The shares to watch for today are PT Smartfren Telecom Tbk (IDX: FREN), PT Barito Pasifik Timber Tbk (IDX: BRPT), PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (IDX: PGAS), PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (IDX: ANTM), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (IDX: HMSP), PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (TLKM), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), and PT Mayora Indah Tbk (IDX: MYOR).
May you have a profitable week!
Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia