JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! This week monetary policy action comes from Indonesia, while central banks in the United States (US), Europe, Australia and India release the minutes from their prior meetings. All of which will be scoured for clues as to how policymakers assess the health of local and global economies to gauge the potential for further stimulus.
US financial markets will be closed today for Presidents Day. The country’ stocks had set record highs on Wednesday boosted by hopes for accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserves (Fed) after the chairman, Jerome Powell said he was monitoring the progress of the coronavirus outbreak for its impact on China and the global economy.
The central bank is due to release the minutes of its January meeting on Wednesday with investors paying close attention for any mention of the coronavirus impact. Eurozone flash PMI numbers need to continue to show the economy expanding to keep the European Central Bank comfortable with remaining on hold while in the Britain, markets will be looking to see if a January post-election rebound in the PMIs has enough legs to keep the Bank of England from cutting rates.
Investors will also continue to watch speculation over whether the British’ government will move towards more aggressive fiscal stimulus after the shock resignation of Chancellor Sajid Javid last week, who is to be replaced by Rishi Sunak. After the Euro suffered its worst start to a year in five years, economic data this week will be closely watched as reports may give the first signs of the coronavirus impact on the bloc’ economy.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to publish the minutes of its January meeting on Thursday and the main focus will likely be on any details to do with its monetary policy strategy review. In Asia Pacific, Japanese and Australian flash PMI data are joined by a clutch of trade data.
The Japanese survey numbers follow signs of a rebound in activity after a poor fourth quarter, while Australia is battling against a slide in its currency to a 10-year low on virus impact fears. In addition, the flash PMI surveys will be an eagerly awaited focus of the week, providing the first insights into how the global economy has fared during the Covid-19 outbreak.
The concern is that slumping demand from China, a downturn in travel and tourism and supply chain disruptions will have all dampened growth in February in which this month’ PMIs being so important in helping assess both the depth and breadth of the initial impact.
The number of new coronavirus cases in China fell on Sunday and a health official said the intense efforts to stop its spread were beginning to show results. The latest figures showed 68,500 cases of the illness and 1,665 deaths, most of them in Hubei. Outside of China, there have been about 500 cases and four deaths to date. The economic impact of the epidemic is still unknown.
In Indonesia, Statistik Indonesia to announce the development of export and import in January. During 2019, the country’ trade deficit declined sharply to US$3.20 billion in 2019 from an $8.69 billion recorded a year earlier as export grew 6.94 percent to $167.53 billion lower than imports figures worth $170.72 billion despite a decline of 9.53 percent year on year.
Today, President Joko Widodo will lead a limited meeting on improving Indonesia’ tourism ranking and preparation for the 2020 Hannover Messe and the Dubai World Expo 2020. While, finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and the Head of the Investment Coordinating Board Bahlil Lahadalia will be the speakers at the Indonesia Economic and Investment Outlook by Eurocharm.
On Friday (02/14), Indonesian Rupiah rate strengthened 0.01 percent to 13,693 and the Bank Indonesia middle rate weakened 0.2 percent to 13,707 per US Dollar. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 0.09 percent to 5,866.95 level and over the past week has dropped 2.21 percent.
Today the analysts rated the local exchange rate will move in the range of 13,640 to 13,750 against the Greenback. And, the stock index between 5,821 -6,024. They predicted the trade balance data and other global issues will influences the market today.
They recommended PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Gudang Garam Tbk (IDX: GGRM), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (IDX: PWON), PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (IDX: HMSP), PT Jasa Marga Tbk (IDX: JSMR), PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (IDX: AKRA) stocks to be watch for today.
May you have a profitable Week!
Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia