JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! An increasing uncertainty over the outlook of United States (US) monetary policy and heightened fears of potential economic recessions rattled financial markets around the world in this week. While, August PMI numbers for the US, Eurozone, Australia and Japan are released.
All the data will be useful in assessing whether the global slowdown has persisted midway through the third quarter or rather raising the recession risks that would that will trigger further central bank stimulus around the world.
In the US, the Jackson Hole symposium and G7 Summit during this week, will take on particular significance with investors seeking updated thinking from policymakers. Flash PMI data also will take centre stage.
But Federal Open Meeting Committee minutes for July saw the first rate cut since 2008 will also be scrutinized for clarity on the future direction of US monetary policy.
With rising expectations of European Central Bank stimulus, the account of July’ policy meeting may give some signals about the scale of anticipated monetary support. August’s flash PMI data will also be closely watched. The release of final inflation estimates is also likely to lend support to the case for greater monetary support.
From Britain, media reported prime minister Boris Johnson is scheduled to meet german chancellor Angela Merkel and president of French Emannuel Macron in this week. He wants to tell the leaders there must be a new Brexit deal.
In Asia, the flash PMI and trade data will be scoured for signs of trade war impact amid growing worries over the global growth slowdown. Then, Thailand’ economic growth is likely to have picked up slightly to 2.9 percent in the second quarter, up from 2.8 percent in the opening quarter of 2019, according to IHS Markit forecast.
Given the wave of monetary easing, central bank watchers will monitor Bank Indonesia’ policy meeting as well as minutes from recent monetary policy meetings in Australia and India. While, Indonesia Stock Exchange held a series of public exposures of public listed companies for three days.
On Sunday (08/18), An unidentified man assaulted two Wonokromo Police officers working at a Police Integrated Service Center in Surabaya, East Java. The attacker didn’t have an Identity card on him. Last May, a suicide bombing took place at the Surabaya Police headquarters, injuring four officers and six civilians.
At the same day and city, Indonesian police arrested dozens of West Papuan students after a standoff over allegations the Indonesian flag was thrown into a sewer. Its reported the students were brought in for questioning over the “destruction and disposal” of the Indonesian flag, which had been hanging outside the student hostel. The students allegedly shouting anti-West Papuan slogans and threats, and singing the Indonesian national anthem.
Last weekend, Indonesian Rupiah closed up to 14,223 and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) to 6,286.66 from prior day amid the easing of trade war sentiment and domestic economic data. After strengthened on Friday, the Rupiah and the composite index is expecting still move in the green zone today.
The movement of the JCI will be influenced by sentiment of US – China trade war. Another sentiment that will affect the domestic market is an indication of new monetary policy by the Federal Reserves.
On the other hand, the role of the government in maintaining the stability of domestic economy is also expected to provide a positive catalyst for the market.
On Monday, the analysts sees the composited index will be move in the range 6,161 – 6,381.
They recommended PT Wika Beton Tbk (IDX: WTON), PT Gudang Garam Tbk (IDX: GGRM), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (IDX: HMSP), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (IDX: BMRI), PT Adaro Energy Tbk (IDX: ADRO), PT Bukit Asam Tbk (IDX: PTBA), PT Surya Citra Media (IDX: SCMA,) and PT Adhi Karya (IDX: ADHI) stock to be watch on Monday.
May you have a profitable week!
Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia