JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! Indonesia extends the community restriction from Feb. 23 to March 8 because its considered effective in inhibiting the spread of the coronavirus. And today, the country and the European Union will meet in the 10th Round Indonesia – European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement starting today until Feb. 26.
In 2020, total value of trade between Indonesia and the European Union (EU) will reach US$25.5 billion with Indonesian export and import values to the EU respectively amounting to $14.4 billion and $11.1billion. The EU is the third largest non-oil and gas export destination and origin for Indonesia.
Globally, in this week we will sees fresh estimates of GDP in some major economies including the United States (US), Germany and France. There are also some more up to date higher frequency statistics such as US durable goods orders, sentiment surveys and British’ labour market numbers, which will be eagerly awaited for signs of economic health early in 2021.
Policy action – or more likely a lack of it – meanwhile comes from China and New Zealand. The US sees a further estimate of fourth quarter GDP, which is expected to show a slight upward revision to 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent.
However, its the higher frequency data for the opening months of 2021, which will garner the most attention amid signs that the economy has sustained a strong pace of expansion, even showing signs of growth accelerating. US flash PMIs showed the strongest private sector expansion for almost six years, fueled by surging service sector activity (buoyed in part by stimulus cheques), and a sustained strong manufacturing expansion.
Durable goods orders are therefore expected to show strong growth, while new homes sales are expected to have increased and consumer sentiment likely to have improved. In Europe, fresh detailed estimates of fourth quarter GDP are also published for France, Germany and Portugal, plus first estimates are released for Switzerland, Poland and Denmark.
Prior data showed France contracting by 1.3 percent on the three months to December but Germany eked out a 0.1 percent gain. In the United Kingdom the focus is on the labour market, with official data on employment, wages, vacancies and joblessness released, the latter coming under particular scrutiny amid growing calls to extend the country’ furlough scheme beyond April.
Consumer and business sentiment surveys are also released across Europe, including the IFO survey for Germany. In Asia Pacific, the People’s Bank of Chins is expected to kick off the week by leaving its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, seeking to safeguard its recovery path until the pandemic risks have further abated.
End of last week, Indonesia Rupiah weakened 0.29 percent to 14,065 per US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) strengthened 0.51 percent to 6,231.93 compared to the previous day. Over the past week the local currency dropped by 0.66 percent and the stock index increased 0.15 percent.
The analysts rated, both movements was influenced by the trade balance data and the decision of Bank Indonesia to cut the benchmark rate. For this week, the sentiments could affect the market are Chinese economic data in the form of the PMI and United States personal consumption.
In the country, the development of the COVID-19 vaccination will again become one of the focuses of the market. With this information, the Rupiah is expected to move in the range 13,850 – 14,100 and the JCI between 6,200 – 6,315.
Stocks that can be watched for today are PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (IDX: ANTM), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBRI), PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (IDX: KLBF), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI, and PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (IDX: PWON).
-IHS Markit contributed to this briefing
May you have a profitable Week!
Written by Linda Silaen, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia