JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! The week ahead sees a busy diary of data releases to steer the markets despite the Chinese New Year and United States (US) Presidents’ Day holidays. In Indonesia, the statistic bureau has an agenda to announces the latest trade balance data in January 2021.
The pick of our bunch is Friday’ release of the manufacturing and services flash Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for the US, Eurozone, Japan, Britain, and Australia, though a number of countries also issue more backward-looking but important industrial production, trade and retail sales updates, alongside fourth quarter GDP estimates for Japan, the eurozone, the Netherlands and Thailand.
Meeting minutes from the Federal Reserves (Fed), Reserves Bank of Australia, and European Central Bank will help assess monetary policy trends, while Bank Indonesia meets to set interest rates. Flash US PMIs for February are accompanied by the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys plus jobless claims data, all of which will collectively provide a lens into economic growth trajectory midway through the first quarter.
Retail sales and industrial production numbers are also issued for January. Recent US survey data have been strong, buoyed by vaccine roll out and fiscal stimulus, meaning the latest Fed minutes will also be gleaned for any clues as to whether the central bank accommodation could start to be reined in earlier than many have been thinking.
Inflation is becoming more of a concern, especially after survey price indices hit decade-highs. In Europe, GDP data are expected to confirm that the eurozone economy contracted in the fourth quarter, but its the PMI data for February that will be more closely watched for news as to whether the downturn is intensifying in the first quarter.
While the Eurozone PMI slipped into a deeper decline in January, it was a slump in the United Kingdom surveys that was more alarming, as COVID-19 related lockdowns were exacerbated by Brexit. Similarly, in Asia Pacific, the PMIs for Japan and Australia will be closely watched after January numbers showed the former struggling amid rising virus waves but the latter continuing to exhibit robust growth.
Also watch out for GDP releases in Japan and Thailand, jobs and retail sales updates in Australia plus trade numbers for Japan, China, India and Indonesia. Japan announced today the economy expanded by an annualized 12.7 percent in October – December of 2020, a sign the country was emerging from the initial hit from the coronavirus pandemic.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 3.0 percent in the final three months of 2020, the cabinet office data showed. At the end of last week, Indonesian Rupiah strengthened 0.07 percent to 13,970 per US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose 0.33 percent to the level of 6,222.52.
Over the past week, the stock index has moved up 1.15 percent and the local currency strengthened 0.33 percent from the close of trading compared to the previous week. This week, the analysts predict that the hope of stimulus and developments regarding vaccine launches will still support the rupiah.
In addition, domestic data will be released, such as data on Indonesia’ trade balance, which is estimated to have a surplus of US$2.3 billion in January, continuing the December 2020 surplus of $2.1 billion. Then, there is also the central bank Meeting, which is predicted to keep the interest rate at 3.75 percent.
They projected that in this week, the Rupiah will trade in the range of 13,850 – 14,050 against the Greenback and JCI between 6,050 – 6,250. Stocks that can be watched this week are mining, consumer, telco, manufacturing, commodity, banking, and infrastructure stocks.
For today, they recommended PT Astra International Tbk IIDX: ASII), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBRI), PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP), PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (IDX: PGAS), PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (IDX: HMSP), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), an PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (IDX: AKRA).
-IHS Markit contributed to this briefing
May you have a profitable Week!
Written by Linda Silaen, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia