nvestors will be closely watching the progress of President Joe Biden' US$1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid bill against a backdrop of concern over what such a large stimulus package could do to inflation and interest rates - Photo by the White House Office

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! This week, Investors will be closely watching the progress of President Joe Biden’ US$1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid bill against a backdrop of concern over what such a large stimulus package could do to inflation and interest rates. Bidden its expect to sign the law before March 14 and had  promised to distributes the personal cash end of this month.

Next data will releases are the monthly budget statement is accompanied by job openings and jobless claims numbers, as well as the initial March reading of the University of Michigan’ consumer sentiment indicator. The latter will be eyed for further signs of consumers boosting the economic recovery. Producer price data will also be watched after recent surveys showed signs of inflationary pressures building.

Markets also will seek guidance on central bank policy in the week ahead after recent data not only showed the global recovery gathering momentum but also showed rising inflationary pressures. A key global gauge of companies’ input cost inflation rose to its highest for over 12 years in February, leading to the largest increase in average selling prices for goods and services for over a decade.

Interest rate meetings are held at the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Canada, and will be closely watched amid growing concerns over rising bond yields. Despite recent market volatility, the analysts continues to expect the ECB to deliver on its forward guidance, whereby pandemic-related net purchases are extended to at least March 2022.

President of ECB, Christine Lagarde, will also announce the bank’ new quarterly forecasts at the post policy meeting press conference. Similarly, in Canada, the central bank has pledged to keep interest rates at 0.25 percent until excess capacity is eroded, which at its last meeting the bank didn’t expect to see until 2023.

Speeches from Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governors are also scheduled for the week, with the latter watched for clues as to the RBA’ commitment to yield control after recent intervention in the bond markets. In Europe, a fresh estimate of fourth quarter GDP, currently thought to have shrunk 0.7 percent, is released alongside industrial production numbers for January.

The latter are expected to show manufacturing helping ameliorate a downturn in the service sector. British’ GDP data are also updated for January, with survey data hinting at a marked downturn as a new national lockdown hit activity, exacerbated by Brexit-related disruptions.

Then, a fresh start partnership have agreed by European Union and US. They agreed to suspend all tariffs related to the Airbus-Boeing disputes on aircraft & non-aircraft products for an initial period of four months.

In Asia, China’ exports surged 155 percent in February compared with a year earlier when much of the economy shut down to fight the pandemic. China’ trade numbers will come under scrutiny after recent signs of supply delays hampering trade flows. The country posted a trade balance surplus of $103.3 billion in February.

Inflation numbers are meanwhile expected to remain subdued. A new estimate of fourth quarter’ GDP is also due out of Japan. The earlier estimate has beaten expectations with a 3.0 percent quarter-on-quarter gain as the economy rebounded from COVID-19 restrictions, though more recent data have signalled some cooling of the recovery.

From the commodity market, oil prices were up the highest levels in more than a year after Yemen’ Houthi forces fired drones and missiles at the heart of Saudi Arabia’ oil industry on Sunday. Brent crude price climbed US$1.09 to $70.45 a barrel and West Texas Index crude rose $1.08 to $67.17 per barrel.

On Friday, Indonesian Rupiah hit the four-month low as United States (US) bond yields rise and ended at 14,300 versus the Greenback. While, the Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.51 percent to 6,258 from the previous day. The analysts rated, for this week the movement of both instruments still influences by global economic data, especially, Chinese inflation data, US treasury bond yields and stimulus policies, also the fluctuations in commodity prices.

With the various information, they estimating Rupiah will moves between 14,210 – 14,400 a US Dollar and JCI will still fluctuate in the range 6,091 – 6,398. Stocks to be watch for today are PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBRI), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (IDX: AKRA), and PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP).

-IHS Markit contributed to this briefing

May you have a profitable Week!

Written by Linda Silaen, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia