The worldwide manufacturing surveys will be eyed for rising inflationary pressures, with markets eager to assess whether recent signs of rising prices will prove transitory as policymakers are expecting or more troublesome - Photo: Special

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! End of last week the suicide bombing has hit catholic church in Makassar, South Sulawesi presumed by two member of Jamaah Ansharut Daulah. A bomb exploded at 10.30 a.m. local time and allegedly killing two suicide bombers and injuring 14 people.

The explosion occurred when churchgoers were just finished Sunday Palm prayer. And this morning, large fire occurred in Balongan refinery in West Java owned by state energy firm, PT Pertamina. Five injured and hundreds evacuated after a massive blast at the oil and gas refinery.

On Thursday, statistic bureau has an agenda to announces the inflation and tourism data in the first quarter of 2021. Bank Indonesia sees that inflation will be 0.09 percent on the monthly basis and 1.37 percent in annual basis. In February the inflation stood at 1.38 percent compared to a year ago.

Globally, the manufacturing surveys will be eyed for rising inflationary pressures, with markets eager to assess whether recent signs of rising prices will prove transitory as policymakers are expecting or more troublesome. The surveys have brought welcome signs of factory output growth accelerating to the highest for nearly a decade as economies have rebounded from virus-related shutdowns.

Especially strong growth has been seen in the eurozone, where flash Purchasing Manager’ Index (PMI) numbers for March showed a 23-year survey record increase in production. But the flash PMIs also brought further signs of production being constrained – notably in the United States (US) – by escalating supply problems.

Supply shortages have in turn US’ Federal Reserves through the highest price pressures since 2008. March’ data will therefore be scoured in particular for clues as to whether supply is catching up with demand to alleviate some of the bottlenecks, especially in relation to supplier delivery times and shipping.

There will also be a big focus on the US, with non-farm payroll data released on Friday. Prior data showed an unexpectedly strong surge in employment as 379,000 new jobs were added in February and prior months’ data were revised up markedly. The unemployment rate now stands at 6.2 percent compared to April’ peak of 14.7 percent.

With recent robust survey data pointing to upbeat business confidence, buoyed by the vaccine rollout and new US$1.9 trillion stimulus measures, hiring is likely to have remained solid in March. Even more US stimulus looks to be on the cards, with President Joe Biden earmarked to announce at least $3 trillion of infrastructure spending on Wednesday.

Any news of additional stimulus could be dampened, however, by countermeasures brought into pay for the extra spending, especially tax hikes. In Europe, a revamped monthly Bulletin is published by the ECB in a week which sees preliminary inflation numbers issued for March. February’ annual CPI came in slightly below expectations at 0.9 percent, but recent survey data hint that upward pressures are building.

In Asia, the NBS publishes its non-manufacturing PMI for mainland China alongside its factory survey, while Japan updates its retail sales, unemployment, industrial production and Tankan survey statistics.

On Friday, Indonesian Rupiah closed up 0.06 percent to 14,418 against the US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index strengthened 1.19 percent to 6,195.56 from the prior day. The analysts assess that both movements in this week will be influenced by the responses to a number of economic data such as the personal consumption expenditures price index for February, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for March, and China’ industrial profits for February 2021.

From domestic, market are waiting for the March’ inflation data. With these various information, on Monday, Indonesian Rupiah its estimating move in the range 14,395 – 14,445 versus the American Dollar and the JCI between 6,050 – 6,200. 

Stocks that can be watched today are PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR), and PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP).

-IHS Markit contributed to this briefing

May you have a profitable Week!

Written by Linda Silaen and Editorial Team, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia