JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! The release of worldwide PMI surveys will provide an early snapshot into economic growth and inflation trends midway through the first quarter. Flash February data hinted at the strongest developed market expansion for three years, led by the United States (US).
The week also sees fourth quarter GDP updates for Australia, Brazil, Canada, the Czech Republic, Italy and South Korea. Even in countries such as Japan, Britain and Eurozone, where COVID-19 containment measures have been tightened again this year, economies seem to be faring better than last year due in part to a revival in manufacturing.
However, the growth spurt is being accompanied by rising prices, notably for industrial goods, due to near record supply chain delays. These delays and price hikes are linked to demand exceeding supply as economic recoveries take hold. The specter of inflation has continued to rattle bond markets, and higher yields have the potential to cause problems for policymakers eager to keep borrowing costs low.
The focus also turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia’ policy decision. Markets will be looking for any signs that the central bank could be wavering from its commitment to keeping the policy rate low for several years despite recent signs of sharply rising price pressures and solid economic growth.
The performance of the US economy will also be gauged by updates to the ISM surveys and the labour market, with non-farm payrolls expected to rise by 110,000, an improvement on the disappointing 49,000 increase seen in January but still indicative of a weak job market recovery, underscoring the deep scars left by the pandemic on sectors, such as retail and hospitality.
With President Joe Biden’ US$1.9 trillion virus relief package advancing to the Senate Friday’ non-farm payrolls report for February will show how the recovery in the labor market is faring. While, the initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to their lowest in three months, indicating that the slowing infection rate is allowing the labor market to gain some traction. Retail sales also rebounded in January.
Investors will be focusing on Friday’ employment report, which is expected to show that virus restrictions kept a lid on jobs growth in February. Appearances by several Federal Reserve speakers, including chairman, Jerome Powell, will also be closely watched.
In Europe, the United Kingdom budget is due on Wednesday, while euro zone economic data will show how the economy is coping with ongoing pandemic restrictions. British finance minister, Rishi Sunak, said would not rush to fix the public finances as he readied a budget plan which will pile more borrowing on top of almost GBP300 billion ($422.53 billion) of COVID-19 spending and tax cuts.
He promised to help the British’ economy through a gradual lifting of lockdown measures that will last at least until late June. But he also said he would “level with people” about how Britain’s 2.1 trillion-pound debt pile would carry on growing without action.
In Asia, Statistic Indonesia,bureau has an agenda to announces the latest inflation data in March. Then, economic ministers plans to releases the new stimulus for an automotive and housing downpayment and President Joko Widodo inaugurates some projects in Central Java.
On the commodity market, the OPEC+ is expected to discuss increasing production oil output from April at its meeting on Thursday, with prices near 13-month highs. Last year, the cartel has slashed the output by 9.7 million barrels per day last year as the pandemic ravaged global demand.
Some analysts rated reckon a 500,000 bpd output increase looks possible without causing an inventory build-up, as economies recover. Russia is keen to raise supply and Saudi Arabia’ voluntary 1 million bpd cut also expires in March, and that supply may return from April.
Last weekend, Indonesian Rupiah weakened 0.76 percent to 1.08 percent to 14,235 per US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index 6,241.80 from previous day. Today, the local currency is estimating will be traded in the range of 14,230 – 14,290 over the Greenback and the stock index between 6,188 – 6,262.
Stocks that can be considered are PT Adaro Energy Tbk (IDX: ADRO), PT United Tractors Tbk (IDX: UNTR), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (IDX: BMRI), PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), and PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM).
-IHS Markit contributed to this briefing
May you have a profitable Week!
Written by Linda Silaen, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia