United States - China relations have plummeted to their lowest point in decades - Photo by WorldFinance

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! A key focus for this week will be the expected signing of the phase one United States (US) – China trade deal. China’ vice premier Liu He will visit Washington DC starting today to Jan. 15.

The two countries have exchanged blows for more than a year and has announced a mini-agreement to reduce some levies in a bruising trade war that has dragged on global growth. Its expecting in the coming weeks both leader to sign the deal.

Also in this week, we will sees a wealth of key official data releases that will indicate how the world’ major economies fared in the closing months of 2019. In the US, there have been mixed signals on the health of manufacturing, with a steep decline in the ISM survey contrasting with a more stable – though still very subdued – picture from the IHS Markit PMI survey.

Industrial production numbers will therefore provide important evidence on actual growth trends. Likewise, retail sales data will be eyed for hope that consumer spending continued to provide support the US economy and counteract the manufacturing weakness.

In the Britain, GDP, retail sales and inflation numbers are expected to show the economy struggling to expand amid weak price pressures late last year. The latest PMI surveys illustrate just how weak the business sector remained at the end of 2019, and recent comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney have underscored how a swift acceleration in growth is by no means assured.

Similarly, in the Eurozone, industrial production data are expected to add to signs that the region’s producers endured a tough end to the year, and will likely bolster speculation of more stimulus.

In the Asia-Pacific, the focus is on China, where GDP, industrial production, retail sales and investment numbers will reveal whether the pace of economic growth managed to steady after slipping to the lowest since at least 1992 in the third quarter. IHS Markit expects GDP growth to have picked up marginally in the fourth quarter, but that this revival will be short-lived, with growth edging below 6% in 2020 to continue the longer-term slowdown trend.

On Iran dispute, President Donald Trump says, the national security adviser suggested today that sanctions and protests have Iran “choked off”, will force them to negotiate. Actually, he admitted, he couldn’t care less if they negotiate. He asserted, “Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and “don’t kill your protesters.”

From the country, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed 16 agreement with Uni Emirate Arab during his visit to the country. Part of the deals, 11 agreement has been signed for investment purpose with total amount US$22.8 billion.

Today, Bank Indonesia to release prompt manufacturing index in fourth quarter of 2019 then on Jan. 15 announces the national debt position. At the same day Statistic Indonesia will reporting the trade balance of the nation.

Last week, Indonesian Rupiah edged up 0.65 percent to 13.755 versus US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index closed up 0.78 percent to 6,274.94 compared to previous day.

The two major instruments strengthened again after Trump gave a statement that he would not retaliate against Iran, giving it an aura of peace and at the same time dropping gold and crude oil prices, but this could be a positive catalyst for shares in other sectors.

For this week, the analyst rated, the US and Iran’ sentiment will be replaced by US and Chinese trade sentiment. In addition to signing the first phase of trade, the market will also still be wary of seeing how the Brexit continues and the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Based on various data, they predicted, during this week the local currency will move in the range of 13,700 – 13,850 over the Greenback. And the stock index move between 6,250 to 6,300.

The stocks to be watch are PT Adaro Energy Tbk (IDX: ADRO), PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT Ciputra Development Tbk (IDX: CTRA), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (IDX: BMRI), PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (IDX: BBTN), PT Gudang Garam Tbk (IDX: GGRM), PT United Tractors Tbk (IDX: UNTR), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBRI), and PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk (IDX: SIMP).

May you have a profitable week!

Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia