Former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the meeting with Chairman of Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto on July 30, 2018 at Puri Cikeas, Bogor - Photo by Demokrat Party

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Ahead of the registration of presidential and vice presidential candidates on August 4-10, the name continues to emerge and more difficult to predict. Political movements that may be noticed is related to the steps of the government’s opposition party that is still looking for the ideal form.

On Wednesday 18/07), the president candidate from Gerindra party, Amanat Nasional party (PAN) and Kesejahteran Sosial party (PKS) Prabowo Subianto will meet chairman of Demokrat party Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). The former Indonesian president has offered his son name Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) to become president or VP candidates to President Joko Widodo’s coalition party and others.

Secretary General of the Demokrat party Hinca Pandjaitan told reporters on Monday (16/07), the meeting took place at the residence of SBY in Kuningan, Jakarta. He said, that SBY and Subianto’s meeting aims to sharpen the Democrats’ considerations to select the three options that his party has set.

The three options set by the Democrats are joining the coalition of Widodo, carrying the Subianto’s party, or carrying a candidate pair in addition to both.

With the joining of Kebangkitan Bangsa party to Widodo’s coalition, practically the option of carrying candidate pair outside of him and Subianto will be difficult. Unless, there is one party that has joined the coalition of Widodo out and deigns a coalition with the Democrats.

Previously, Demokrat proposed VP Jusuf Kalla (JK) to accompanying AHY to race in the 2019 president and VP election. But, according to VP’s expert Sofjan Wanandi, JK has rejected the Democratic party’s bid caused he no  longer wants plunge in the political world and he still support Widodo in the presidential election.

Based on the results of simultaneous regional elections, particularly in West Java, Central Java and East Java, gave a massive lift to the Widodo’s re-election bid in 2019. On June 27, Indonesia held simultaneous regional elections in 17 provinces, 115 districts, and 39 cities involving 518 candidates with 16 of them were single candidates.

The three provinces become the key battleground for the 2019 presidential elections as all accounted for 47.6 percent of eligible voters in the archipelago. The first is West Java with the list of permanent voters of 31.730.042, followed by East Java of 30.155.719, Central Java of 27.068.500. Whoever the winner in the three provinces determine the support and coalition of the presidential election.

Islamic Party

Although Widodo won in the three key provinces, Widodo must remain alert of the Islamic Party power as the result gaps were not so distant. In the West Java, the winner Ridwan Kamil’s votes only gap 5 percent with the Islamic related parties–Gerindra and Kesejahteraan Sosial party–of Sudrajat-Ahmad Syaikhu.

Similar tight results happened in Central Java and East Java Provinces. In East Java, the two related Islamic parties supported the Saifullah Yusuf-Puti Soekarnoputri got 46.64 percent votes or just a difference of 6.72 per cent from the winner Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Dardak.

In Central Java, a candidate supported by two Islamic related parties, Sudirman Said-Ida Fauziyah, got 41.66 per cent votes, the difference of 16.68 per cent to the winner’s votes.

The slight result gap with the Islamic related parties candidates cannot be ignored by the Widodo if he wants to save the votes in the 2019 presidential election. He should learn from the Jakarta election in 2017 when the candidate that uses the issue of identity and Islam won the election.

Moreover, Widodo only won by a margin of 6.3 per cent from Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa that supported by Islamic related parties in the 2014 presidential election.

Chairman Poltracking Hanta Yuda AR

On the Poltracking Indonesia’s survey on February 2018, reveals that there are effectively just two figures with ‘two digits of electability’, namely incumbent President Widodo and his former rival in the 2014 presidential election Subianto. The trends and electability gap of these two figures are 20 – 33       percent for Subianto and 45 – 57 percent for Widodo.

Apart from these two figures, the legacy political elite, such as figures who have appeared in previous elections as well as new figures emerging in electoral dynamics the last three years reveal electability of no more than 5 percent.

However, it is important to note is that although Widodo’s electability is well above that of Subianto, with 20 percent or more, he is still to be considered ‘unsafe’ as an incremental candidate because his electability is still below 60 percent. Both these figures are related to the vice presidential candidate they select.

This survey shows six figures with electability above 5 percent, with a significant gap compared to other names, AHY, Gatot Nurmantyo, Anies Rashid Baswedan, Ridwan Kamil, Muhaimin “Cak Imin” Iskandar, and Khofifah Indar Parawansa.

In a semi-open question with 28 candidates for vice president, there are 7 names above 4 per cent, with Muhammad Jusuf Kalla (15.9 per cent) far in the lead with the highest number, followed by Nurmantyo (7.9 per cent), Harimurti (7.6 per cent), Baswedan (7.5 per cent), Kamil (6.1 per cent), Cak Imin (5.2 per cent) and Parawansa (4.4 per cent).

Thirdly, based on existing Indonesian constitutional law and party politics in recent months, the analysis of this survey has focused on the potential of four potential scenarios of a candidate coalition.

Based on the ‘rule of the game’ law currently in effect in Indonesia, this scenario is based on the legal construction of presidential candidacy after the Constitutional Court’s decision regarding the 20 percent seat nomination threshold and the constitutional provisions (Article 6A) where candidates can only be nominated by their respective political parties.

Based on this analysis, scenario one projects three axis coalition couples for president – vice president in a coalition: Widodo axis, Subianto shaft, Yudhoyono axis. Scenario two is the occurrence of two coalition axes where the coalition shaft of Widodo and Yudhoyono go head-to-head against the Prabowo coalition shaft.

Scenario three, on the contrary, has Widodo’s coalition shaft confronting the coalition shaft of Subianto and Yudhoyono. Finally, the fourth scenario is the joining of the Widodo and the Subianto shaft against the axis of Yudhoyono.

Fourth, the survey also revealed that if the legislative elections were addressed during the survey, PDI-P (26.5 per cent) was the most popular party, followed by Gerindra (13.4 per cent), and Golkar Party (11.3 per cent). Electability of parties outside these three stands below 10 per cent.

The PDI-P in this case is potentially the strongest as the winner of the 2019 election, because in addition to having a strong association of Widodo, the incumbent president, the 2019 election of the legislative and presidential candidates creates a ‘coattail effect’, that is the strong potential of voters to stand with party bearers or supporters.

Another thing to note in the results of this survey is how party electability for the second and third positions still ranges from Gerindra or Golkar Party as their electability is below the margin of error of 2.83 per cent. Meanwhile, the third and fourth positions are between the Democratic Party (6.6 per cent) or PKB (6.0 per cent), as the difference in election figures of those two parties is no more than 1 per cent, well below the survey’s margin of error.

The results of this survey indicate that parties that do not pass the 4 per cent parliamentary threshold are still difficult to predict because in addition to the 15 per cent of undecided voters, the electoral dynamics of the president election and political issues one year ahead will be very influential on the rise and fall of party votes.

Fifth, the survey found that voter turnout and distribution is still very fluid. This survey recorded 53.2 per cent of the public said it is still possible to change its political choice in the upcoming 2019 election.

In relation to this matter, voter certainty will only be determined during the Campaign Period (20.7 per cent), After Official Candidate Determination (18.7 per cent), and Election Day (17.4 per cent).

However, potential voter participation is high enough that as many as 78.8 per cent of the public will exercise their voting right by voting in the 2019 general election. The survey also shows that of the three dimensions of the groups of factors affecting voters, Candidates Seeking Candidates (19.4 per cent), Candidate Performance and Experience (19.1 per cent), and Candidate Personal Characters (17.7 per cent) are the three background factors that most influence the public choice.

Sixth, the survey found that public satisfaction with the performance of the government of President Widodo and Vice President Kalla was 68.9 per cent. Quantitatively, the satisfaction rate (job approval rating) is quite high because it is above 60 per cent.

One of the factors that explains the satisfaction rate is Road and Bridge Infrastructure Development (66.5 per cent) and Affordable Health Services (61.2 per cent) as among the most successful issues handled by Widodo-Kalla regime.