Kertanegara Meeting - Photo by Gerindra

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good morning. The election of presidential and vice president (VP) candidates of the 14 parties that participated in the 2019 election is increasingly conical ahead of the August 10, 2018. Meanwhile his rival President Joko Widodo to announce his VP in the near time.

Yesterday, chairman of Gerindra party Prabowo Subianto get a presidential ticket from Keadilan Sejahtera party (PKS) and Amanat Nasional party (PAN) at the Kertanegara meeting. With that meeting the three parties pursed steps to coalition and invite other parties to join.

The VP who will accompany Subianto, it said would be discussed at the next meeting including the draft cabinet which would focus on economic reform. Several names has appeared to become his’s VP are Zulkifli Hasan (chairman of PAN), Anies Bawesdan (Jakarta’s Governor) and Gatot Nurmantyo (former Chief of National Army).

So far Subianto has participated in the presidential electoral arena for three times. First, in the 2004 presidential election, where he ended up losing votes from Wiranto (now Coordinating Minister for Security Affairs) in the 2004’s Golkar Party presidential convention. Second, being Megawati’s vice-presidential candidate in the 2009’s presidential election. And lastly, the presidential candidate, with the vice presidential election of Hatta Rajasa (former PAN’s Chairman) in 2014.

President Joko Widodo (second left) and PDI-P Chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri (second right) – Photo by PDI-P

His contender Widodo now in the stage to pick his VP candidates. Talking to media on Monday (16/07), he admitted has pocketed several names such as Mahfud MD (member of the Presidential Work Unit of Pancasila Ideology Development), Moeldoko (chief of the President Staff), Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Finance Minister), Chaerul Tanjung (chairman of CT Corp) and Muhaimin Iskandar (chairman of Kebangkitan Bangsa Party) to become his VP candidates.

Currently the presiding president has bagged support from his coalition parties such as Demokrat Indonesia-Perjuangan party, Golongan Karya party, Nasional Demokrat party, Hati Nurani Rakyat party, Persatuan Pembangunan party, Solidaritas Indonesia party, Persatuan Indonesia and Keadilan party dan Persatuan Indonesia party.

Based on the current development, we estimate there will be three presidential candidates who will race in the 2019’s general election. The other parties lead by Demokrat we believed will support other president candidates namely Nurmantyo, Muhaimin or Anies Bawesdan paired with Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.

If totaled, the Widodo’s coalition is the most obese with pocketed 290 seats or 51.77 percent. This amount is much more than the threshold conditions set in the Election Law which is only 20 percent of the House seats.

Based on the SMRC survey in December 2017, Widodo topped the top of presidential candidates to be elected in 2019, with 38.9 percent electability while Subianto only 10.5 percent. If one pitted between Widodo and Subianto, the presiding president excelled with 64 percent while his rival 27 percent.

Meanwhile Lembaga Survey Indonesia rated Subianto could win in the 2019 presidential election, if it can maintain 46.85 percent of the votes it won in the 2014 election, and reap the remaining 4 percent in the 2019 election. To achieved the targets, Subianto must seriously consider the variables of political parties, in their ability to direct voters’ political choices.