JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50 percent within 2018 and 2050, led by Asian countries that are not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), it said in the latest report.
Natural gas and petroleum consumption are rising in Asia faster than supply is growing, potentially shifting trade patterns and infrastructure investments.
“Energy consumption was greater in Asia than in any other region in 2018, and we project that consumption will almost double between 2018 and 2050, making Asia both the largest and fastest-growing region in the world for energy consumption,” said the agency.
This long-term trend of Asian energy consumption to support growing economies strongly influences the extraction, refining, and transport of oil, natural gas, and other fuels, stated by the report.
EIA said that the industrial sector — which includes refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction — will likely account for more than half of end-use energy consumption through the projection period, the largest share of energy consumption of any end-use sector.
World industrial sector energy use is projected to rise by more than 30 percent between 2018 and 2050 as consumption of goods increases. By 2050, global industrial energy consumption is forecast to reach about 315 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).
Transportation energy consumption is forecast to increase by nearly 40 percent between 2018 and 2050. This increase is largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption is expected to rise by nearly 80 percent between 2018 and 2050. Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement grows in these countries more rapidly than in many OECD countries, EIA said.
“Non-OECD Asia accounts for about three-quarters of EIA’s projected global increase in liquid fuels consumption through 2050. India, in particular, is projected to experience rapid industrial growth and increased demand for motorized transportation,” it said.
At the same time, crude oil production will be concentrated in the Americas, Russia and the Middle East. Trade and infrastructure will have to shift to accommodate the projected production and consumption changes. Given these overall economic patterns, natural gas trade and infrastructure face similar shifts, EIA said.
Energy consumed in the buildings sector, which includes residential and commercial structures, is projected to grow by 65 percent between 2018 and 2050, from 91 quadrillions to 139 quadrillions Btu. Rising income, urbanization and increased access to electricity will lead to rising demand for energy.
The growth in end-use consumption results in electricity generation increasing 79 percent between 2018 and 2050, the EIA forecast said. Electricity use is expected to grow in the residential sector as rising population and standards of living in non-OECD countries increase the demand for appliances and personal equipment. Electricity use also rises in the transportation sector as plug-in electric vehicles enter the fleet and electricity use for rail expands.
With the growth of electricity generation, renewable energy resources — including solar, wind and hydroelectric power — are expected to be the fastest-growing energy source between 2018 and 2050, surpassing petroleum and other liquids to become the most used energy source.
Worldwide renewable energy consumption is expected to rise by 3.1 percent per year between 2018 and 2050. That compares with 0.6 percent annual growth in petroleum and other liquids, 0.4 percent growth in coal, and 1.1 percent annual growth in natural gas consumption.
Global natural gas consumption increases more than 40 percent between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches nearly 200 quadrillions Btu by 2050. In addition to the natural gas used in electricity generation, natural gas consumption increases in the industrial sector. Chemical and primary metals manufacturing, as well as oil and natural gas extraction, account for most of the growing industrial demand.
In mid-September, the Potential Gas Committee said that the United States possesses a total mean technically recoverable resource base of 3,374 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of year-end 2018. This is the highest resource evaluation in the committee’s 54-year history. It exceeds the previous high assessment – from year-end 2016 – by 557 Tcf, an increase of about 20 percent.
This marked the largest two-year increase in absolute resources between evaluations in the Committee’s history. The increase resulted from reassessments of shale gas resources in the Atlantic and Mid-Continent areas and conventional and tight gas in the Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain areas.
The assessment includes 3,218 Tcf of gas potentially recoverable from “traditional” reservoirs (conventional, tight sands, carbonates and shales) and 157 Tcf in coalbed gas reservoirs.
In its forecast to 2050, EIA said that global liquid fuels consumption is expected to increase more than 20 percent between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches more than 240 quadrillions Btu in 2050. Demand in OECD countries remains relatively stable during the projection period, but non-OECD demand increases by about 45 percent.
Written by Lexy Nantu, Email: email@example.com