Saka Energy Plant - Photo by the Company

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – World Bank (WB) estimated that to meet the energy access target in 2030, the world requires an investment of US$1.35 trillion, mainly to fulfill and electricity access to 8 percent or 650 million people from the global population. 90 percent of them will be in sub-Saharan Africa.

It said, now level of current global electrification reaches 89 percent. And since 2010, number of people without access to electricity fell to around 840 million, compared with 1 billion in 2016 and 1.2 billion in 2010.

But the report showing that the increase in energy intensity tended to be less than the Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) target, so most potential benefits were not realized. Given current and planned policies, the increase in energy intensity is projected to be 2.4 percent on average per year between 2017 and 2030.

According to the scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), investment in the energy sector associated with all SDG7 targets needs to be more than doubled to achieve this goal.

Between 2018 and 2030, the annual average investment will need to reach around $55 billion to expand energy access, around $700 billion to increase renewable energy and $600 billion to improve energy efficiency, it said.

World Bank detailed, among countries with the largest population without access to electricity, Bangladesh, Kenya, Myanmar, and Sudan have made the most progress. Among the least electrified countries, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau and the Central African Republic have about 3 percentage points of electricity each year since 2010.

Meanwhile, Cambodia, Afghanistan, and Nepal are currently among the countries that are the fastest to electrocute, it said. So far, populations without access to clean cooking solutions amounted to nearly 3 billion in 2016 and distributed throughout Asia and Africa.

Widespread use of fuel and pollutant technology for cooking continues to cause serious health and socio-economic problems. In addition, renewable energy accounts for 17.5 percent of the total global energy consumption in 2016.

The use of renewable energy sources to generate electricity is increasing rapidly, but there is little progress in heating and transportation. A further substantial increase in renewable energy is needed so that the energy system becomes affordable, reliable, sustainable, focusing on modern use.

The share of renewable energy in electricity consumption increased by 1 percentage point to 24 percent in 2016. This is the fastest growth since 1990, more than double that of 2015.

This is driven by three main developments recovery of drought in Latin America and related increases in hydroelectric power generation. Then, and addition of China’ record-level wind capacity in 2015, which became fully operational in 2016 and rapid expansion of solar power capacity in China and the United States.

In six countries where renewable energy consumption is above the global average, this trend is led by the traditional use of biomass (in India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan), modern biomass (in Brazil), or hydropower (Canada).

With energy efficiency, the World Bank estimates that the global primary energy intensity is 5.1 megajoules per US dollar (purchasing power parity 2011) in 2016. The increase in energy efficiency has increased steadily in recent years, thanks to joint policy efforts in major countries, including China.

Meanwhile, the share of the global population with access to clean fuels and technology for cooking increased from 57 percent in 2010 to 61 percent in 2017. However, because population growth exceeds annual access growth, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, populations without access to the cooking net is still under 3 billion.

To achieve the universal clean cooking target by 2030 and surpass population growth, the annual average increase in access must increase to three percentage points, from the level of 0.5 percentage points observed between 2010 and 2017.

But this lags behind the annual increase rate of up to 2030 targeted by the SDG7, which now exceeds 2.7 percent and it is estimated that a further decline in the rate of improvement has been observed in 2017 and 2018, with the increase in 2018 falling to only 1.3 percent.

In the 2010-2016, China saw the most significant increase, with India, Indonesia, Japan, and Britain also making strong progress. Energy intensity has declined at levels that vary across end-user sectors.

According to the IEA scenario, if the potential for cost-efficient energy efficiency is maximized, the rate of increase in intensity between 2017 and 2030 reaches 3.6 percent. This underlines that it is still possible to not only fulfil but even exceed the SDG7 target.

Therefore, the World Bank emphasizes that the main efforts that the government can make to realize this potential like strengthening mandatory energy efficiency policies, providing targeted fiscal or financial incentives, utilizing market-based mechanisms, and disseminating high-quality information about energy efficiency, including the dissemination of digital technology to utilize energy efficiency improvements.

Written by Daniel Deha, Email: daniel@theinsiderstories.com