IHS Markit estimates that global growth in 2020 will be 1.7 percent, compared with 2.5 percent in our February baseline, and 2.7 percent in 2021 compared with the earlier forecast of 2.8 percent - Photo: Special

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! The week ahead sees the resumption of trade talks between the United States (US) and China plus the International Monetary Funds latest outlook. Liu He, China’ vice-premier, this week go to Washington for discussions with Steven Mnuchin, the US Treasury secretary, and Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, in an attempt to reach a truce after tariff escalations over recent months.

Last weekend US president’ call for China to investigate the Joe Bidens has jeopardized efforts to reach even a limited commercial ceasefire between the world’ largest economies. While key economic data releases include inflation numbers for both the US and Eurozone as well as United Kingdom (UK) GDP.

In the US, weak Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) data have raised market odds of the Federal Reserves cutting rates sooner than previously expected, though inflation numbers and Federal Open Meeting Committee minutes will provide more insight into the potential appetite for looser policy on Wednesday.

In Europe, Brexit and recession risks feature highly in the UK, where official GDP data will give more insight into how the economy is faring amid heightened political uncertainty. The UK government once again faces an uphill battle as it tries to make headway in securing the deal.

European Union (EU) leaders refused to hold negotiations over the weekend unless major concessions were made. EU leaders have also raised concerns around the prime minister’ customs proposals to remove the so-called backstop from the deal negotiated by his predecessor Theresa May and prevent the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland.

For the eurozone, disappointing PMIs mean analysts will be looking at official data from Germany to gauge the extent of a recession in the region’ largest member, as well as inflation numbers to assess the further European Central Bank policy stimulus.

In Asia, China services PMI data will draw attention as analysts assess the extent to which domestic stimulus may be helping offset trade war impact, with trade data from Taiwan likewise under scrutiny. Japan will update its machinery orders, while Singapore releases third quarter GDP numbers.

North Korea’ chief negotiator, Kim Myong Gil, said denuclearization talks in Sweden between officials from Pyongyang and Washington have broken off. She said, the US delegation had previewed a number of new initiatives that wool pave the way progress in the talks and underscored of more intensive engagement.

Since June, US officials has struggle to persuade North Korea, which is under sanctions banning much of its trade due to its nuclear program. While, on Sunday, China’ President Xi Jinping made a telephone call to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to reaffirm the neighbors’ relationship  on the 70th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic ties. Xi has met Jim five times in the past year and had reached a series of important consensuses.

On Thursday, Russian president Vladimir Putin is due to visit Saudi Arabia, aiming to strengthen ties over energy, oil and defence, reflecting a strategy to build influence in the region, which has hugely increased since his backing of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the US following a more cautious strategy in the Middle East.

In Indonesia, Bank Indonesia to announce the foreign exchange (forex) reserves for September. In a previous month the country pocketed forex reserves US$126.4 billion, rose 0.39 percent compared to July worth of $125.9 billion.

Last week, Indonesian Rupiah closed up 0.25 percent to 14,138 compared to US Dollar. While, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)

Some analysts sees, the local currency and the stock index has the opportunity to strengthening in this week supported by external factors. Rupiah is estimating move in the range 14,100 – 14,157 agains the Greenback while JCI between 6,002 – 6,241.

The stocks to be watch are PT Bank Artos Tbk (IDX: ARTO), PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (IDX: JPFA), PT Jasa Marga Tbk (IDX: JSMR), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP), PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (IDX: SMGR), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), and PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI).

May you have a profitable week!

Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia