Oil cartel and allies led by Russia agreed to cut the output around 10 percent of global supply to support oil prices amid the COVID-19 - Photo by OPEC

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! Oil cartel and allies led by Russia agreed to cut the output around 10 percent of global supply to support oil prices amid the COVID-19. Oil prices have been slammed recently by concerns about the low demand, with United States (US) crude price dropped by 62.7 percent trade at US$22.76, year-to-date and the S&P 500 energy sector has fallen about 43 percent until April.

This week sees the release of some eagerly awaited official data, which will indicate how some of the world’ key economies have fared in the face of the COVID-19 outbreak during March. Early data, such as initial jobless claims in the US and Britain, have looked like spreadsheet errors, spiking higher as the pandemic led to lockdowns and business closures.

Similarly, the March PMI data showed global business contracting at the steepest rate since 2009 as efforts to contain the virus caused activity to collapse across huge swathes of the economy, often to unprecedented degrees in areas, such as travel and tourism.

Some of the most important releases will come out of mainland China, notably industrial production, retail sales, investment and trade for March. With the world second largest economy having locked down before other countries, these numbers will help gain some sense of the extent to which China’ economy and its supply chains have managed to recover after a marked drop in activity in February, as virus containment measures start to ease.

The country’ first quarter GDP is also released, but will be more backward-looking than the monthly data. Other trade numbers for Asia, notably for Japan, India and Indonesia will also be updated for March. On Monday, Bank Indonesia will hold the regular board of governor meeting until tomorrow and reported the Business Survey in the first quarter of 2020.

Then, on Tuesday, the central will announces the monetary policies and releases the Consumer Expectation Survey in March. And on Wednesday, the central bank will announces the Retail Sales Survey Report February 2020

In the US, the investors also await industrial production and retail sales numbers for March, as well as housing starts, in addition to the weekly jobless statistics. Some regional Federal Reserves (Fed) surveys are also released which will give an initial insight into manufacturing trends in early April.

Retail sales are expected to post the largest drop at least three decades while the industrial production data could show the largest decline in the post-World War 2 era. Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are all scheduled to make appearances, with investors keen to hear how policymakers view the scale of the economic downturn.

Last week’ the Fed minutes indicated that officials expect current ultra-loose monetary policy measures will remain in place against a “profoundly uncertain” backdrop, with the economy expected to enter a recession this year and not recover until next year in a worst-case scenario

In Europe, the United Kingdom sees non-official retail sales numbers for March and the Bank of England releases its first quarter credit conditions survey. Final inflation and industrial production numbers for the euro area are due, but the latter only relate to February.

The week also sees the International Monetary Fund (IMF) release new global economic forecasts after the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, which are likely to show significant downgrades. IHS Markit projects a 2.6 percent drop in global GDP in 2020.

Last Thursday, IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva warned, that the pandemic will turn global economic growth “sharply negative” in 2020, triggering the worst fallout since the 1930s Great Depression, with only a partial recovery seen in 2021.

End of last week, Indonesian Rupiah strengthened 2.28 percent to 5,880 a US dollar, and the Jakarta Composite Index closed up 0.5 percent to 4,649. For this week, the analysts said, the IMF’ statement that Indonesia was one of the countries in Asia that would be resistant to recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic has potential to bring back foreign capital inflow.

With the various data, they expect the local currency will move in the range15,700 to 16,000 against the American Dollar and the stock index between 5,000-5,100.

Stocks to be watch are PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBRI), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (IDX: BMRI), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Bukit Asam Tbk (IDX: PTBA), PT Indotambang Megah Raya Tbk (IDX: ITMG), PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT United Tractors Tbk (IDX: UNTR), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: INDF), PT Gudang Garam Tbk (IDX: GGRM), and PT HM Samportna Tbk (IDX: HMSP).

May you have a profitable Week!

Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia