JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – This week, Bank Indonesia (BI) will report the position of foreign exchange (forex) reserves, consumer and retail sales survey in June. Last month the consumer retail survey fell to the lowest level since 2008 and the retail sales dropped to a deeper contraction by 16.9 percent in April from previous year.
While, the reserves stood at US$130.5 billion in May from previous month at $127.9 billion. The increase was mainly influenced by the withdrawal of government foreign debt and the placement of forex banking at the central bank.
Globally, after manufacturing PMIs showed encouraging signs of factories emerging from lockdowns, further clues as to economic recovery paths will be sought from various key data releases. These include the global PMI, United States (US) non-manufacturing data, Eurozone industrial output and retail sales, plus detailed global sector.
In US, the focus shifts to the services and non-manufacturing PMIs. Jobless claims will also be in the limelight amid worries about the economic impact of lockdowns being reintroduced. Vast swathes of the US have re-instigated lockdowns as COVID-19 infection rates hit new record highs.
Retail sales and industrial production for the Eurozone will be eyed to gauge the extent of the rebound from April’ lockdowns. PMI data have already hinted at strong monthly gains in the official gauges, and early indicators, such as German and French retail sales, have bounced higher.
Construction PMI numbers will also give additional clues as to building activity across Europe’s largest economies in June. In Asia, central bank meetings in Australia and Malaysia will be keenly watched for policymakers’ latest assessments of the economic outlook.
Both have unleashed stimulus to fight pandemic-fueled downturns, but the latest economic data are showing improvements, which could reduce appetite for further measures just yet. China’ credit and money supply data will also be important to watch.
From Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin won the referendum and allowing him to rule the country for the next 16 years. He has also signed an executive order amending the Russian Constitution which allows him to rule until 2036.
With the signing, it means he became the longest-serving leader in the modern era. Putin has been the Prime Minister of Russia since 1999 and in 2000 became President of Russia, until now.
Meanwhile, the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement or IA-CEPA has been made official on Sunday, July 5. The IA-CEPA was initially established on November 2, 2010, by both country’s government leaders with the first and second rounds of trade taking place in 2012 and 2013 but was halted for three years. The trade deal annuls import duty for Indonesian products to enter Australia.
In 2019, the Indonesia – Australia trade saw a $3.2 billion deficit from the two country’s total trade value of $7.8 billion. Indonesia’s export to its neighboring country was recorded to be $2.3 billion with $5.58 billion imports. This itself presented Indonesia with $3.2 billion in deficit.
Last week, Indonesian Rupiah closed down 2.12 percent to 14,450 a US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index rose by 0.14 percent to 4,973.79 compared to prior day. For today, the stock index its expecting move in the range 4,925 to 5,000 and the local currency between 14,400 to 14,500 against the American Dollar.
Stocks to be watch for today are PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBRI), PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (IDX: CPIN), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (IDX: HMSP), PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (IDX: LSIP), PT Bank Negara Indonesia (IDX: BBNI), PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (IDX: BSDE), PT Ciputra Development Tbk (IDX: CTRA), PT Waskita Karya Tbk (IDX: WSKT), PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (IDX: BSDE), dan PT Ciputra Development Tbk (IDX: CTRA).
-IHS Markit contributed to this briefing
May you have a profitable Week!
Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia