The oil and gas sector is estimating still have a great opportunity to attract investors with a total investment value around US$117 billion until 2024 - Photo by Total

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – The Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Special Task Force (SKK Migas) targeting to lift the national oil production up to one million barrels a day (MMbbl) by 2031, local media reported. As reported, the agency reported needs investment around US$6 billion to reach those targets.

Based on SKKMigas data, until the third quarter of 2019, Indonesia’ average oil production hovered at 750,000 bbl, oil lifting averaged 745,000 bbl daily and gas lifting gan average of 1.05 million british thermal unit (MMBTU). 

Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKKMigas) Dwi Sutjipto said, although the investment achievements in the 1H of 2019 are still far from the target, the realization of upstream oil and gas investment increased 16 percent compared to the same period the previous year worth of $4.5 billion.

Based on the agency data, there will be 42 main developments up to 2027 with a total investment of $43.3 billion. The projects are divided into 23 offshore projects and 19 onshore projects. Later, the projects are expected to contribute to oil production of 92,100 BOPD and 6.1 billion MSCFD.

Regarding the monitoring of the main upstream oil and gas work program as of 1H 2019, there were 18 exploration wells drilling from a year ago 11 drilling and there were 135 wells compared to 1H of 2018 with 129 wells. In addition, there were 340 wells per June 2019 or an increase from 324 activities per June 2018.

Last year, Moody’s Investors Service says that Indonesia will require oil and gas investments of more than $150 billion from now through 2025 to arrest falling upstream production, develop its gas import infrastructure, and expand its refining capacity to meet its growing level of petroleum demand.

“We also believe that an increasing proportion of investments will likely fall to Pertamina (Baa2 stable) — the state-owned oil and gas producer — and domestic producers as foreign investments moderate amid an evolving regulatory environment,” says Rachel Chua, a Moody’s Assistant Vice President and Analyst.

She continued, “Around 80 percent or $120 billion of the investments will need to be spent on upstream exploration and production, and the remaining $30 billion on the downstream oil and gas segment. Absent a surge in investments, Moody’s expects Indonesia’ total oil and gas production to fall almost 20 percent by 2022 from 2017”.

Upstream investments in Indonesia’s hydrocarbon space have halved over the past four years as companies slowed growth plans to grapple with the lower oil price environment. Furthermore, Indonesia (Baa2 stable) will become a net gas importer after 2022 because of growing domestic demand and slowing production.

The country’ total demand and supply situation will largely balance in 2022, but after that, it will need to supplement its domestic gas supply with liquified natural gas imports. Indonesia will also remain dependent on crude and refined fuel imports, importing around 35 – 40 percent of its crude-oil requirements through 2022, inline with 2017 levels.

Declining domestic crude production will be largely countered by the
redirection of export barrels into the domestic market under a new
government directive. Owing to limited domestic refining capacity, petroleum imports will likely account for over 55 percent of petroleum demand by 2022, up from 40 percent now.

Moody’s further sees Pertamina’ role — as the government’s designated oil and gas holding company and the executor of its hydrocarbon agenda — as vital for the sector. Accordingly, the government will continue to design its policies such that the fuel subsidy borne by Pertamina is partly compensated by advantageous upstream policies, including the award of major oil and gas

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