JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee kicks off its two-day meeting starting today and is expected to leave rates and the pace of its US$120 billion monthly bond-buying program unchanged. The expectations are also high that chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell will express some concern over this year’ stunning selloff in treasury markets.
After the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the Bank Indonesia, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will hold their meetings on Thursday and Friday. Beside the monetary policy, from United States (US) we will get some retail and home insight tomorrow.
US’ retail sales may decline in February as a result of bad weather across large parts of the country and a lack of stimulus checks. The economist also sees the NAHB Housing Market Index for March will remain little changed at 83 from 84.
The other worry was the decision by Germany, France and Italy to halt AstraZeneca’ COVID-19 vaccine following reports of recipients falling ill. In Asia, China’ monthly data showed industrial production and fixed asset investment rising strongly from a year ago.
Output was up 35 percent on the year in first two months of 2021 and retail sales were up by a similar amount. Base effects were also responsible for Germany’ wholesale price inflation turning positive for the first time in a year.
In the commodity market, oil prices dipped amid concerns about surging supplies as prices hit more than double from a year ago. US’ crude output was down 17 percent since March 2020 record highs of 13.1 million barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. West Texas Intermediate crude price settled down 0.3 percent to US$65.39 per barrel and Brent oil dropped 0.5 percent to $68.88 per barrel.
While, for a second straight day, both, gold futures and spot prices defied a stronger American Dollar to come off their lows. Gold for April delivery settled at $1,729.20 a troy ounce, or nearly 0.6 percent on New York’ Comex and the spot price of gold was at $1,731.82 per troy ounce.
On Monday, Indonesian Rupiah closed down 0.14 percent to 14,418 against the US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) weakened 0.53 percent to 6,324 compared to the previous day. The analysts believed that the market is waiting for the decision on the results of the monthly meeting of Bank Indonesia and the Fed while observing the yield movements of US and Indonesian bonds.
Domestically, the release of Indonesia’ trade balance data today actually provides a positive sentiment for the strengthening of both instruments. However, this seems unable to provide support for the movement of the local currency in the midst of the weakening regional currency against the Greenback.
With this information, it is estimated that the Rupiah will move in the range of 14,350 – 14,450 per US dollar and the JCI is between 6,281 – 6,375. Stocks that can be watched today are PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (IDX: BMRI), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Adaro Energy Tbk (IDX: ADRO), PT PP Tbk (IDX: PTPP), and PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI).
Then, PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP), PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (IDX: AALI), PT Adhi Karya Tbk (IDX: ADHI), and PT Waskita Karya Tbk (IDX: WSKT) stocks.
May you have a profitable Day!
Written by Linda Silaen and Editorial Team, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia