Insight: Seeing Global Economic Recovery after US-China Deals
President US Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping. Photo

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – United States (US) President Donald Trump believed China was sincere about wanting to reach a deal, while Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said his country was willing to resolve the dispute through “calm” negotiations.

The return of the both trade peace wish was a factor that sparked buying action on the Chinese stock exchange. On the sidelines of Group of Seven (G-7) Summit in France, Trump said that the two countries would start talking very seriously.

The comments from Trump came after US’ Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had cooled the atmosphere first. He gave a signal that the US was still very open to signing a trade agreement with China, provided that the agreement was a fair and balanced agreement. The trade war between the two countries escalated before and during the weekend.

While, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Trump “thinks that’s what we should do”, adding that “of course, we’re going to work towards that end” on the Russian possibility back into the G7. According to media reports, Trump clashed with other G7 leaders during a private dinner of the summit as he lobbied for Russia’ readmission to the organization.

Trump said that Russia’ return to the G7 would benefit both global economy and security and declared that he would invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to the group’ in the next summit in 2020. Russia was expelled from the group in 2014 after being accused of an alleged role in the war in eastern Ukraine, which Moscow has consistently denied. The G7 is now composed of the US, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada.

On Tuesday, oil prices rose after Trump predicted a trade deal with China get a positive comments by Beijing. Brent crude oil was up 1.2 percent to $59.39 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude futures also jumped 1.4 percent at $54.38 per barrel, after both price falling 1 percent in the previous session.

Oil prices have fallen by about 20 percent from 2019 highs reached in April, partly because of worries that the US – China trade war is hurting the global economy, which could dent demand for oil.

In Asia, on August 28 to 30, South Korea plans to hold talks with Indonesia on their bilateral free trade agreement as part of efforts to diversify trade amid rising protectionism around the globe. The two countries have been seeking to strike a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) since 2012.

Their negotiations resumed in February after a hiatus of five years. Indonesia is the second-largest trading partner of the South Korea in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Two-way trade reached $20 billion in 2018.

Last July, China’ imports of stainless steel rose 55.33 percent to 73,900 metric tons (MT) compared to June, China Customs reported, as materials from Indonesia soared 300 percent after local cold rolling lines broke down. In annual basis, the country’ imports of stainless steel shrank 43.71 percent to 690,800 MT, with imports of Indonesian materials down 61 percent to 317,300 MT.

Indonesian stainless steel imports accounted for 35 percent or 25,976 MT of the total for July. A greater amount of Indonesian hot-rolled stainless steel entered China last month, through processing trade to avoid anti-dumping duties.

From India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’ government will receive about US$25 billion from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for fiscal stimulus. Last week, the new finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, accelerated a nearly $10 billion recapitalization.

In Indonesia, Finance ministry raise Rp17.3 trillion (US$1.2 billion) from the government bond issuance on Tuesday’ auction. Data from the ministry showed that the number of issuances is still within the indicative target range Rp15 trillion to Rp 30 trillion.

On Tuesday, Indonesian Rupiah closed up 0.11 percent to 14,250 against the US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index rebounded into the green zone with a gain of 1.02 percent to 6,278 levels. While, the yield on the 10-year benchmark tenor of the government bond fell 0.8 basis points.

Today, the composite index is estimating has room going up above in the range 6,248 – 6,327. For today, the analysts recommended PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk (IDX: INKP), PT Waskita Beton Precast (IDX: WSBP), PT Wika Beton Tbk (IDX: WTON), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (IDX: HMSP), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI), PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (IDX: INCO), PT Adhi Karya Tbk (IDX: ADHI), PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (IDX: SCMA), and PT Erajaya Swasembada tbk (IDX: ERAA) stocks to be watch.

May you have a profitable day!

US$1: Rp14,200

Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia