JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Bank Indonesia (BI) reported the country’ retail sales index have continued to improve even though they are still in a contraction phase. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index of -12.3 percent in July compared to last year (YoY), improving from -17.1 percent in the previous month.
Sales improvement is predicted for almost all commodity groups surveyed, with sales in the food, beverage and tobacco category experiencing the lowest contraction, with growth at -1.9 percent (YoY). This is in line with the increase in people’s purchasing power and the implementation of New Habit Adaptation.
Retail sales are predicted to continue improving in August 2020, supported by nearly all categories of goods. IPR growth for August 2020 is forecasted at -10.1 percent (YoY), improving from the previous month. Sales of the food, beverage and tobacco group are predicted to start recording positive growth in August 2020.
Other groups of goods are also predicted to experience improvement with a downward contraction, except for the other household goods group. In terms of prices, inflationary pressure is predicted to increase in the next six months (October 2020 and January 2021).
The indications of an increase in prices are reflected in the general price expectation index for next six months at 133.7 and 157.7, respectively, higher than the previous period of 131.5 and 156.1. Respondents estimated that the price increase was influenced by disruption in the distribution of goods and services in line with the arrival of the rainy season.
On Sept. 1, Statistic Indonesia reported the Southeast largest economy again posted a deflation 0.05 percent in August from previous month also experienced a deflation 0.10 percent. According to Kecuk Suhariyanto, the deflation occurred due to a decrease in food prices as indicated by a fall in several indexes for the expenditure group.
He said, food, beverage and tobacco group dropped by 0.86 percent and the transportation group by 0.14 percent. While, the expenditure group that experienced an increase were the clothing and footwear group by 0.07 percent; the housing, water, electricity, and household fuel group of 0.02 percent; and equipment, tools and household routine maintenance group by 0.08 percent.
Then, health group of 0.06 percent; the information, communication and financial services group of 0.03 percent; the recreation, sports, and culture group by 0.05 percent; the education group of 0.57 percent; the food and beverage and restaurant supply group by 0.13 percent; and personal care and other services group of 2.02 percent.
He continued, the inflation rate for the calendar year was 0.93 percent and the year-on-year inflation rate is 1.32 percent. The core component in August 2020 experienced inflation of 0.29 percent. The inflation rate for the core component for the calendar year 2020 was 1.32 percent and the inflation rate for the core component on annual basis was 2.03 percent.
Suhariyanto explained, in August 2020, there was a deflation of 0.05 percent with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 104.90. Of the 90 CPI cities, 53 cities experienced deflation and 37 cities experienced inflation. The highest deflation occurred in Kupang at 0.92 percent with CPI of 102.48 and the lowest occurred in Sibolga, Tembilahan, Bekasi and Banyuwangi with 0.01 percent each with CPI of 103.05, 105.06, 106.97, and 103.49, respectively.
The highest inflation, said the head, occurred in Meulaboh at 0.88 percent with a CPI of 107.53 and the lowest occurred in Batam, Kediri, and Kotamobagu with 0.02 percent each with CPI of 103.24 each, 104.51, and 105.93, each.
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