JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Indonesian stock market didn’t show high optimism ahead of this year’ election. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) only rose by 3.09 percent in annual basis (YoY) until last day of trade prior to election, the lowest growth in the last four elections.
This year, a series of Indonesia’ election, choosing president and house members, is held on April 17. A day before election day, the index closed at 6,481.54.
The 2019 presidential election contested Prabowo Subianto and the incumbent Joko Widodo seems like a deja vu from the previous election. But this year, analysts predicted that there would be a narrow gap between both candidates.
The result could also be unpredictable, as the previous Jakarta Governor election, whose the winner is backed by Subianto, turned out unexpected.
A day before 2014′ election, JCI increased by 14.09 percent YoY. At that time, stocks market, including foreign investors, favored Widodo to win. Because the former-general Subianto had stated that he firmly refused foreign capital and feared foreign investors.
Previously, worse sentiment occurred in 2009′ election. Not only because investors’ sentiment on the candidates, but also there were a lot of shocks due to the financial market crisis, and causing the JCI slumped by 29.36 percent yoy until a day prior to election date.
Five president candidates, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Wiranto, Amien Rais, Hamzah Haz, and former President, son of Indonesia’ founding father Megawati Soekarno Putri met in 2009 election. Yudhoyono paired with Jusuf Kalla, then vice president in Widodo’ leadership, won the election.
In 2004′ election, investors seemed putting their hearts into the market. JCI rocketed by 77.11 percent YoY, ahead of election. The spirit of reformation was still burning for developing the country, after Soeharto’ three decades dictatorship ends in 1998.
Since 2004, Indonesia implemented a new mechanism for election. In order to achieve better democracy, Indonesians directly choose their president. While previously, president had always been chosen by the house.
There were different sentiments and conditions coming before those elections. But all have something in common: election years always mean gain.
In the full year of 2014, JCI hiked by 22.29 percent. While in 2009, when the market slumped ahead of election day, it turned bouncing high by 86.98 percent for the whole year. And during 2004, the stocks market increased by 44.56 percent.
Amid the current uncertanties of global conditions such as the Unite States – China trade war, Brexit, world economic slowdown, investors in Indonesia should stay put and believe that election year always mean gain, at least in the previous three elections.
Written by Staff Editor, Email: email@example.com