By Brian Jackson, China Economist, IHS Global Insight
Key Points:
- China’s merchandise exports grew 16.4% in March, compared to -1.6% in February or -28.0% in the year prior. In terms of trade partner, the improvement was spread across the US, EU and ASEAN, who all experienced marked accelerations to double-digit growth. By product, the rebound was concentrated in mechanical and electrical products, which accelerated 8.0 percentage points to 8.8% growth.
- China’s merchandise imports grew 20.3% in March, compared to 37.9% in February or -8.1% one year prior. Slower import growth was attributable to all major partners, although most significantly from decelerating growth from the European Union.
- Weaker imports were primarily in manufactured goods; mechanical and electrical product imports decelerated more than twenty percentage points to 3.5% growth. Crude oil imports accelerated in both value and volume terms.
- Chinese trade balance in March was USD 23.9 billion, compared to USD 24.8 billion one year ago. Year-to-date China’s trade balance is USD 65.6 billion, compared to USD 109.8 billion one year ago.
Outlook:
Chinese trade will continue to play a smaller role in overall growth. While export growth is booming due to higher demand abroad, the same is also true of imports as supply chains respond and commodity prices rise relative to one year ago. Combined, these are eroding China’s trade surplus, and thus the contribution of net exports to GDP.