Cabinet reshuffle is imminent

Noisy around reshuffle cabinet of President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) government echoed in the last few weeks, sparked by poor performance of a number of cabinet members. President Widodo has sent a strong signal during a meeting with 11 economists at the Presidential Palace recently that he is likely to reshuffle his working cabinet.

One economist said that the President indirectly expressed his disappointment with some of his economic ministers’ performances in the first semester. One of the trigger factors is that certain ministries have been working in their own interests and economic policies are yet to be implemented because the ministries have gone their own ways without proper coordination with other related ministers.

On Monday (Aug 10) said that changing top positions either a CEO of state owned enterprise or a minister is not a big deal. He said he prefers to think simple. “If a state owned company is progressing slowly, we have to see, if it is because of its directors or (SOE) minister. If it is caused by directors, we just have to replace the directors. If it is caused by minister, then we replace the (SOE) minister. It is simple.”

President Widodo was also disappointed with the low spending rate of the 2015 State Budget. Finance Ministry disclosed recently that the realized expenditure in the first half reached Rp773.9 trillion, or only 39 percent of the full year 2015 State Budget expenditure. Although the realization was up 1.8 percent compared to the same period last year, the President was certainly dissatisfied with the low spending rate.

This low spending rate played a part in below-expected economic growth in the first half of the year. In the second quarter (April-June), Indonesia’s economy expanded by only 4.67 percent year-on-year, grew at a slower pace compared to the same period last year of 5.03 percent, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) revealed.

The second quarter growth was even slower compared to the first quarter economic growth of 4.72 percent. The economy only grew by 3.78 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter.

The 34 cabinet members of the Joko Widodo and Jusuf Kalla government, including four coordinating ministers come from professionals. The President called his cabinet as ‘Working Cabinet’ as he wants his ministers to seriously focus on their works.

In recent weeks, some names popped up in the public as potential candidates to certain ministers. Our insider sources said that the President may rotate certain positions to suit the particular minister’s capabilities.

Among names that have emerged on the surfaces are former chief economic team and finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati and former Central Bank governor Darmin Nasution and former minister under former president Megawati Soekarnoputri. They are the possible contenders to replace the current Coordinating Minister for the Economy Sofyan Djalil, who was State Enterprise Minister under former president Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Some sources who declined to be named said that Sofyan may be rotated to become State Enterprise Minister, replacing Rini Soemarno.

Beside Sofyan, Minister of Transportation Ignatius Jonan and Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo are also speculated to replace Rini Soemarno. Chairman of Lion Group Rusdi Kirana comes up as a strong candidate to replace Jonan’s position.

President Widodo is also speculated to replace Minister for Energy and Mineral Resources Sudirman Said. A number of names popped up in the media are including Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, former mining minister (1998-1999) and former Head of President’s Delivery Unit for Development Monitoring and Oversight under former president Yudhoyono. Vice President Director PT Indika Energy Arsjad Rasjid Mangkuningrat also emerged as a potential candidate to replace Sudirman Said.

Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro is speculated to hold a new post, namely Minister for National Development Planning/Head of Bappenas to replace Andrinoff Chaniago. Agus Martowardojo and Rizal Ramli are speculated to take over Bambang’s seat.

Former Chief of the Navy Army Luhut Binsar Panjaitan is rumored to replace Rachmat Gobel as Minister of Trade or Minister for Industry Saleh Husin. Luhut was Minister of Trade and Industry under former president Abdurrachman Wahid government.

Other strong candidates for the trade and industry ministries posts are former vice minister of trade Mahendra Siregar and Bayu Khrisnamurti. Luhut Panjaitan is also possible to become Coordinating Minister for Maritime Indroyono Soesilo.

Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Tedjo Edhy Purdijatno is speculated to be replaced by PDI-P politician Tubagus Hasanuddin or former Army’s Chief General Moeldoko.

Another senior PDI-P politician Pramono Anung is also speculated to replace Cabinet Secretary Andi Widjajanto while Andi could be rotated to become Minister of Defense, replacing Ryamizad Ryacudu. Meanwhile Minister of State Secretary Pratikno is expected to replace Yuddy Chrisnandi as minister for administrative and bureaucratic reform.

Sources of The Insider Stories said that President Joko Widodo also considers candidates from outside his coalition parties, as a move to strengthen the parties that support his governemnt. The President is in particular considering minister candidates from National Mandate Party (PAN) and Golkar Party under Agung Laksono leaderships. Soetrisno Bachri, former PAN head, is one candidate to enter cabinet member.

Earlier, Cabinet Secretary Andi Widjajanto said that President Widodo would only replace ministers if they fail to meet expectations after three years. But weak economic growth in the first half, low expenditure realization as well as pressures from government-backed politicial parties, in particular the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) may fast forward the cabinet reshuffle move.

A recent survey conducted by Lingkaran Survei Indonesia (LSI) shows that public satisfaction level of the existing government has fallen from 71.7 percent when he was inaugurated to 42.3 percent after 100 days of his term. According to a survey by Poltracking, 41.8% of respondents were dissatisfied with the performance of the Joko Widodo or Jokowi’s Cabinet and agreed with a Cabinet reshuffle.

Another survey from pollster Puspol Indonesia said that 74.6 percent of a total 756 respondents from Jakarta, West Java and Banten were dissatisfied with Joko’s job performance in the first three months of his term in office. (*)