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For this week, official economic data releases will be of interest to track recovery momentum, as well as the potential feed-though of faster growth to inflation. Consumer and producer price inflation updates for April will be released from the US and China, alongside retail sales and industrial output for the former.
The GDP look back meanwhile continues with first quarter releases from the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and the Philippines, as well as eurozone factory production numbers. A quiet policy week can be seen ahead, with central bank meetings noted only in the Philippines.
The health of the United States (US) economy comes into focus with the release of retail sales and industrial production numbers. Recent record highs for PMI surveys in the US have added to the encouraging picture of the world largest economy, with consumer spending in particular surging higher.
As such, one can look to April’ retail sales performance for confirmation of the continued month-on-month improvement. Over and above the easing of lockdown restrictions, the distribution of the pandemic relief cheques had likely also helped to boost retail sales performance in April. Separately, industrial output due next week is expected to confirm the continued expansion of the US manufacturing sector.
Another key theme to watch is the development of inflationary pressures, especially after signs of record supply-led cost pressures. Last week saw the Federal Reserves (Fed) meeting offering reassurances of accommodative policies in the near- to medium-term.
But this week’ U-turn by US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, has left many scratching their heads. Although she stressed the Fed’ independence, the comments nevertheless served as a reminder of the potential for higher inflation to prelude interest rates hikes.
Consensus estimates point to price pressures continuing to build across the US and China, these CPI releases being key ones to watch for the extent of inflation spiking higher in April.
The monthly GDP update from Britain will complete a full picture of economic growth in the first quarter. After clocking a return to growth in February, the recovery looks to have gained impressive strength.
The flash PMI for April came close to an all-time high as the economy reopened and the British vaccine roll-out injected confidence into both businesses and consumers. However, the official trade data will also be closely watched for signs of any Brexit impact on exports.
In the Eurozone, the industrial production numbers for March will come under scrutiny after February’s data disappointed, contrasting with record growth signaled by recent surveys.
-IHS Markit contributed to this report
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Written by Linda Silaen and the Editorial Team, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia
