JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! The week ahead sees some key retail sales and industrial output numbers released, which will provide important signals as to just how steeply economies may collapse in the second quarter. From domestic side, the investors awaits the government policies to ease the large-scale social distancing.
Given that the Purchasing Manager Index surveys for April showed the global economy contracting at an unprecedented rate, with manufacturing slumping at a pace not seen for 11 years, we are anticipating some gloomy news.
After United States (US) retail sales and industrial production fell at post-war record rates in March, the updates for April could make for especially grim reading. Survey data suggest the economy took a further significant lurch downwards in April. We are expecting US’ GDP to fall at a quarterly rate approaching double digits.
In Europe, first quarter (1Q) GDP data for the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Netherlands are published, all of which will be eagerly awaited to gain further insight into the extent to which the pandemic caused economic activity to slump as lockdowns were implemented.
China also releases industrial production and retail sales data alongside a slew of other indicators including investment. With China having started to re-open its economy from COVID-19 lockdowns sooner than other countries, these numbers could provide important clues as to how quickly production and consumer spending might rebound.
People’s Bank of China said at the weekend that it would use “stronger” policies to ward off the blows suffered by the country due to the virus outbreak. Asia also sees 1Q GDP data released for Japan, Malaysia and Hong Kong SAR.
Policy action meanwhile comes from the central bank of New Zealand. While, Japanese government may end state of emergency for regions with stable virus case in this week, said economy minister Yasutoshi Nishimura. Tokyo, Osaka and 11 other prefectures are not among the regions that could see an earlier easing of restrictions.
Mexico’ central bank is expected to cut interest rates further by 50 basis points on Thursday, as the impact of the epidemic deepens. In addition, Egypt’ central bank is likely to keep interest rates after recording a capital outflow worth US$14 billion in March, when it cut down borrowing costs on a large scale.
Then, minutes from the last meeting of the Brazilian central bank will be released on Tuesday. Previously, policy makers had cut interest rates to record lows. And, retail sales data for March released Wednesday may show a sharp contraction.
In Indonesia, Bank Indonesia will announces Retail Sales Survey on Tuesday, Survey of Residential Property Prices for first quarter of 2020 on Wednesday, and net debt position of the country in March 2020 on Friday. Then, Statistic Indonesia will report May’ export – import development also on Friday.
Today, Financial System Stability Forum hold a presser on the latest information on the national financial stability. And President Joko Widodo will hold a limited meeting on the acceleration of COVID-19 handling. Minister of finance, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, has agenda hearing with commission XI of House on the economic recovery and other issues.
This week, the pace of local currency and stock indices movements is expected to receive a positive catalyst from easing lockdowns in a number of European countries and the United States also the easing of trade wars. From domestic side, the economic data such as trade and GDP will coloring the market.
Last weekend, the Rupiah closed 0.5 percent higher at 14,920 per US dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) corrected 0.25 percent to 4,597.43. Today the local currency is expected to move in the range of 14,900 – 15,000 compared to the Greenback and stock indexes between 4,560 – 4,650.
Shares to be watch for today are PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Adaro Energy Tbk (IDX: ADRO), PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (IDX: PGAS), PT Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper Tbk (IDX: INKP), PT Barito Pacific Timber Tbk (IDX: BRPT), PT BanK Tabungan Negara Tbk (IDX: BBTN), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (IDX: BMRI), PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: INDF), PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP), and PT XL Axiata Tbk (IDX: EXCL).
-IHS Markit contributed for the brief
May you have a profitable Week!
Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia