IHS Markit estimated, the United States (US) economy fell at a 35.3 percent in the second quarter, which subtracts about 25 percentage points from GDP growth - Photo by White House

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning and Happy Eid Al-Fitr to our Moslem readers. The week ahead sees a fresh estimate of United States (US ) GDP in the first quarter (1Q) of 2020, for which the decline is expected to be unrevised at a 4.8 percent annualized rate.

Other GDP updates, including for India, Singapore, Taiwan, Germany, France and Italy, are also widely expected to show a similar picture of economies already hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic in the 1Q. However, these declines will be eclipsed by what’s to come in the second quarter as lockdowns intensified in April.

PMI surveys showed a record global economic contraction in April, pointing to recessions on unprecedented scales. Flash PMI data for May showed rates of economic contraction easing markedly in the US, Europe and Japan, albeit remaining in steep decline, as lockdown restrictions started to be eased. Attention has thus turned to recovery paths, which will inevitably be determined by various factors.

The market players would further evidence to corroborate the PMI message that rates of decline bottomed out in April, including May updates to regional Federal Reserves business surveys and the University of Michigan consumer survey in the US.

In Europe, European Commission sentiment data for May are likewise set to provide corroborative evidence that most countries remained in decline but are showing some signs of picking up in May. In Asia, the NBS China PMI will be eagerly awaited to gauge the extent to which weak global demand is dampening the recovery.

Policy action is expected to come in the form of a rate cut at the Bank of Korea. Other key data include April retail sales and industrial production for South Korea and Japan.

No important agenda in Indonesia caused still on holiday. Last week, minister of health, Terawan Agus Putranto, has issued a ministerial decree on preventing COVID-19 transmission for offices and industry sectors. He instructed for work hours to be shortened and no overtime and stated that although the large-scale social restriction mandates the shutting down of offices, the economy must continue to turn.

Until Sunday (05/24), the task force reported total positive cases in Indonesia raised to 21,745 and fatalities number 1,351. Worldwide, the death numbers jumped to  346,434 people after Brazil recorded the second most cases after the US as well as defeating Russia, Spain and Britain.

America is still recorded as the country with the highest death toll, in total 99,300 people with positive cases reached 1.69 million or the highest worldwide of the global figure of 5.49 million.

IHS Markit contributed to these briefing

May you have a profitable Week!

Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia