Home TIS Intelligence Weekly Briefing: Indonesia’s Inflation, Tourism Data Releases Today

Weekly Briefing: Indonesia’s Inflation, Tourism Data Releases Today

Statistic Indonesia release inflation and tourist data today - Photo: Special

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! Statistic Indonesia will reported the inflation and tourism data during November this noon. In October, the country posted the inflation rate at 0.02 percent and in November is predicting going higher caused of airfare price.

The annual inflation rate slowed to 3.13 percent from 3.39 percent in the September, and annual core inflation eased to 3.20 percent from 3.32 percent a month earlier. While the foreign tourists dropped by 10.56 percent to 1.35 million compared to the previous month.

The week ahead kicks off with worldwide Purchasing Manufacturing Indexes (PMIs), followed by services and composite PMIs mid-week and rounding off with United States (US) non-farm payrolls. PMI data for November will be eagerly awaited after October’ numbers showed the global economy lost further momentum.

Thousands of 212 alumni gathered this morning to celebrated the fourth reunion. The movement has been established since 2016 lead by fugitive’ Rizieq Shihab, leader of Front of Pembela Islam and involve with some local politicians movement.

With policymakers at the world’ major central banks concerned about the global economy, developments in the global PMI during November could provide key steers on monetary policy in the months ahead.

In Europe, the PMIs are accompanied by official data on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales, with the former of particular interest as Europe’ largest economy skirts with recession.

In Asia Pacific, China PMI data will give an important steer on the likelihood of further stimulus form China’ authorities. In addition, the central banks of Australia and India will hold monetary policy meetings this week, both of which will be eagerly awaited to gauge policymaker concerns over slowing growth.

Last week, Japan reported its index of industrial production (IIP) fell 4.2 percent month on month (MoM) in October, following a 1.7 percent rise in the previous month. Manufacturers’ shipments also dropped 4.3 percent MoM while inventory rose 1.2 percent MoM, which drove a 4.7 percent MoM rise in the inventory index.

The steeper-than-expected decline in the IIP largely reflected sharp drops in the production of autos, general-purpose, production and business-oriented machinery as well as electrical machinery while production declined in a broad range of industry groupings. The decline in production was driven by weak domestic demand in line with waning front-loaded demand ahead of the consumption tax increase starting from Oct. 1.

While, factory activity in China unexpectedly returned to growth in November for the first time in seven months, as domestic demand picked up on Beijing’ accelerated stimulus measures to steady growth. But gains were slight, and export demand remained sluggish amid the tariff war with US.

With China’ economic growth cooling to near 30-year lows and industrial profits shrinking, speculation is mounting that Beijing needs to roll out stimulus more quickly and more aggressively, even if it risks adding to a pile of debt, said National Bureau of Statistics last week, above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

Its also reported, Beijing has front-loaded RMB1 trillion (US$142.25 billion) of a 2020 local government special bonds quota to this year to boost infrastructure investment. India also unveil a series of infrastructure projects this month as part of a plan to invest 100 trillion Rupees ($1.39 trillion) over the next five years to improve the country’ economy.

In third quarter of 2019, India’ economic growth slowed to 4.5 percent, its weakest pace since 2013, upping the pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’ government to speed reforms. He came to power in 2014 on the promise to improve India’ economy and boost foreign investments, but he has struggled to meet those aims due to a lack of structural reforms.

On Friday, Indonesian Rupiah weakened 0.12 percent to 14,108 and at the middle rate of Bank Indonesia also edged down 0.02 percent to Rp14,102 against the US dollar. But, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed up 0.99 percent to 6,011.83. Over the past week the stock index had corrected 1.45 percent and recorded a net foreign sell of Rp2.99 trillion ($213.57 million).

Today, some analysts predicted the local currency and JCI would continue to strengthen supporting by inflation data. In addition, the capital inflow recorded is still quite large compared to the previous year.

But, they asserted, the uncertainty on US and China trade war still burden the market. Based on various data, the Rupiah is potentially move in the range of 14,075 to 14,150 against the Greenback and the composite index between 5,912 – 6,123.

The stocks to be watch for today are PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (IDX: HMSP), PT Jasa Marga Tbk (IDX: JSMR), PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (IDX: AKRA), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Bank Permata Tbk (IDX: BNLI), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), and PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (IDX: KLBF).

US$1: RMB7.03, 71.75 Rupee, Rp14,000

May you have a profitable week!

Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia