Final purchasing managers index (PMI) data will be keenly anticipated for the extent of the broader economic impact of the COVID-19 spread around the world after flash PMI data showed business activity in major economies slumped in March - Photo: Special

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! Final purchasing managers index (PMI) data will be keenly anticipated for the extent of the broader economic impact of the COVID-19 spread around the world after flash PMI data showed business activity in major economies slumped in March.

China PMI updates in particular will be scrutinised for signs of recovery amid reports of an accelerated increase in the number of industrial firms resuming work. In the US, with the flash PMI reporting the steepest downturn since the global financial crisis during March, markets will look to forthcoming data, including non-farm payrolls, regional Federal Reserves surveys and the PMI results for virus impact in March.

They will also eye fresh developments on the massive fiscal stimulus plan that has now moved to a vote in the lower house on 27 March, after being unanimously approved by the Senate.

In Europe, analysts will closely monitor upcoming data that include Euro area surveys on consumer and business confidence, while also eyeing any fresh policy responses to stem the negative COVID-19 impact on economic activity. In Asia, the March PMI updates will come on the heels of February numbers, which had indicated a much sharper contraction in Asian manufacturing output, primarily led by China.

Singapore and India will decide on monetary policy, with both are widely expected to ease policy, joining the increasing number of countries launching significant monetary measures. While, Statistic Indonesia shall announces March’ inflation and tourism data on April 1.

Today, President Joko Widodo will lead a limited meeting to receive the report from the COVID-19 Task Force Team anticipating going home Lebaran. Then, finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati will provide economic policy updates to the media.

Then, the coordinating minister for maritime and investment, Luhut Binsar Panjaitan was scheduled to hold a coordination meeting about limited restrictions in Indonesia. And, the minister of state-owned enterprises and the head of the investment coordinating board will sign a memorandum of understanding.

Today, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), relaxed its monetary policy today, to prop up the economy from the cursed recession due to the Corona virus outbreak. The central bank decided to reduce the range of currency bands for the Singapore Dollar.

MAS’ policy was set after Singapore’ Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat launched a fiscal policy package of S$48 billion (US$33.56 billion) to sustain the consumption and business sectors. With this assistance, the total stimulus released by the government reaches 11 percent of the GDP. The policy will be applied in April.

As of Sunday, total number of cases of COVID-19 in the world recorded more than 700,000, driven by a surge in cases in the United States (US). The number of cases in the US jumped by 17,591 to 141,169 cases.

US’ President Donald Trump said he would extend an appeal for Americans to maintain social distancing from each other until April 30. He previously intended to encourage many Americans to return to normal activities on April 12. The Trump administration estimates that the peak of deaths due to the corona pandemic in the US will be reached in about two weeks.

In the commodity market, crude plummeted to its lowest level in 17 years amid lockdowns in many countries due to the pandemic and the escalation of Saudi Arabia – Russian tension. West Texas Intermediate oil futures fell sharply to $19.92 per barrel and Brent’ May contract fell to $23.03 a barrel.

On Friday (03/27), the Saudis said that they had not yet made contact with Moscow about reducing production or enlarging the alliance of producers affiliated with oil cartel and its allies (OPEC+). On the other hand, Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said, although oil prices at the level of $25 per barrel were not pleasant, but this was not a disaster for Moscow.

Last week, Indonesian Rupiah strengthen 0.83 percent to 16,170 per US dollar and the Jakarta Composite index (JCI) closed up 4.8 percent to 4,545. The analysts rated the major intstruments along with other risk assets managed to gain momentum to turn around in a positive direction as investors tended to liquidate assets and look for US Dollars.

The weakening of Greenback was caused by market optimism about the US government’ stimulus to reduce the negative impact of the virus outbreak on the US economy. Beside, the US Dollar also came under pressure from the fall of US unemployment data.

Based on various information, they assessed that Rupiah will move in the range 15,800 – 16,300 per US dollar. While the  JCI between 4,189 – 4,562

Shares that can be considered today are PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBNI), PT Jasa Marga Tbk (IDX: JSMR), PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII), PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (IDX: HMSP), PT Gudang Garam Tbk (IDX: GGRM), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), and PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: ICBP) ).

US$1: S$1.43

May you have a profitable Week!

Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia