JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! This week we will sees monetary policy meetings at the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank Indonesia, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. All of which are struggling to gauge the shape of economic recoveries from COVID-19 lockdowns.
The latest business surveys indicated a further rebound of global business activity in August but also raised concerns about the resilience of national upturns given worries over fresh waves of infections. The meetings will be especially important in assessing the degree to which policymakers are prepared to tolerate higher price pressures in order to sustain recoveries.
At the recent Jackson Hole symposium, United States (US) Fed chair Jerome Powell already announced a new framework, which allows an overshoot of the inflation target to help ensure a robust recovery. The Federal Open Meeting Committee’ latest decision will be framed by updates to key indicators of economic health in August in the form of retail sales and industrial production.
Both have seen growth rates fade from initial rebounds in recent months, so policymakers will be eager to see signs of sustained expansion. The US will also publishes updated trade data, the deficit of which has recently ballooned to the highest since the global financial crisis.
In the United Kingdom (UK), growth surged in August according to the PMI surveys Bank of England’ rate setters are likely to be concerned by the labour market: the surveys also showed the rate of job losses accelerating in August and the government’s furlough scheme is ending in October.
Unemployment therefore looks set to rise sharply which, alongside renewed lockdown measures, adds to the risk of the recovery fading sharply. Eurozone watchers will meanwhile eye trade and production data.
In Asia Pacific, no major change in policy is expected in Japan, though markets will be eager to assess the Bank of Japan’ view of the strength of the upturn. News of Shinzo Abe’ replacement will also be eagerly awaited.
While, China watchers will seek confirmation of recent survey data, showing the second largest economy recovery sustaining robust momentum, from fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales and employment numbers. And in Indonesia, the statistic bureau has agenda to announces the export and import data during September.
Beside, Jakarta provincial government will start to implementing full of large-scale social restriction starting today after number of positive cases rising. And the parliament has schedule to approve the 2021 State Budget and other new laws.
Over the past week, Indonesian Rupiah has weakened 0.96 percent against the American Dollar and became the weakest currency in Asia. But, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) strengthened by 2.56 percent to 5,016,712 compared to the previous day.
This week, the pressure on the local currency is expected to soften and is estimates will remains in the red zone. The Rupiah its expecting move by around 50 to 200 points in the range of 14,850 to 15,010 per US Dollar. While, the JCI between 4,700 – 5,100.
Stocks to be watch for this week are PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA), PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (IDX: KBLF), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (IDX: UNVR), PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: INDF), PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (IDX: BBRI), and PT Astra International Tbk (IDX: ASII).
-IHS Markit contributed to this briefing
May you have a profitable Week!
Written by Linda Silaen, Please Read Our News to Get More information about Indonesia