Swing Voters Determines the Winners of the 2019 Election

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories)Swing and undecided voters influence will be very significant in determining the winner of the 2019 election. A number of surveys show that the percentage of this group reaches 10-25 percent of voters or 50 million out of a total of 192,828,520 voters in 2019 elections.

According to the Centre of Strategic and International Studies survey in March, 90 percent of this group was filled with millennial generations with a minimum level of undergraduate education. They are rational groups who are very ignorant in determining political choices except for programs and vision-missions offered rationally and accommodating to their interests.

That means, both candidates must try hard to convince them with a rational campaign. And it could be if the swing voters are not worked well will lead to potential abstentions. As a record, the number of abstentions in the 2009 presidential election amounted to 28.3 percent and increased in the 2014 presidential election to 29.1 percent.

For now, the opposition pair has managed to attract the support of this group. Indikator Politik Indonesia survey conducted on March 22-29 2019 shows, of the 16.9 percent swing voters, 9.2 percent are predicted to choose Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno, while around 7.7 percent are predicted to choose Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amen.

Whereas 7.2 percent of the undecided voters are predicted to be evenly distributed with each candidate pair receiving 3.6 percent. The total incumbent is predicted to attract 11.3 percent while the opposition is around 12.8 percent. But both groups could still change their choices until the voting day.

“Based on predictions, incumbents are still superior despite continuing to decline ahead of the last weeks of the presidential election. Even the opposition has the opportunity to turn ahead,” he said in Jakarta, Wednesday (04/3).

The Indikator survey did indeed place Widodo-Amin’s superiority at 55.4 percent, and Subianto-Uno gained 37.4 percent of the vote. Thus the electability difference between the two candidates is 18 percent.

Muhtadi stressed, if the two groups of voters divert votes to the opposition then the election results will change completely.

“It is important for us to analyze the undecided and swing voters further, because for example if both of them block into the opposition, 16 percent plus 7 percent, that could potentially change the game. That’s 23 percent, while the difference between the two candidates in the simulation without predicting undecided voters is a difference of 18 percent,” he said.

Muhtadi added, in both total candidate candidates there was around 82 percent of voters who were less likely to change their choices. The rest, it is still likely to change, which is around 16 percent.

Judging further on the supporting bases of each candidate, it was found that 46.6 percent of Widodo-Amin supporters were less likely to change their choices or be called strong voters. While the strong voters in Subianto-Uno voters amounted to 29.2 percent. This solid voter number is part of the electability of the two candidates.

While the Widodo-Amin voters were most likely to change their choices by 8.8 percent. While swing voters in Subianto-Uno voters amounted to 8.1 percent. The number of swing voters is part of the electability of the two candidates. Meanwhile, voters who have not made their choice or undecided voters are 7.2 percent.

“In total, the supporting base has been relatively stable at around 75.9 percent, 46.6 percent is a strong incumbent base, and 29.2 percent are strong opposition bases. Swing voters are more or less balanced on their respective support bases, around 8-9 percent, “he said.

This survey was conducted on March 22-29, 2019. The population in this survey were all Indonesian citizens who had the right to vote in general elections, those who were 17 years or older.

The population was selected by multistage random sampling with the number of respondents as many as 1,220 as the base sample. The margin of error +/- 2.9 percent at a confidence level of 95 percent. The original respondents were 88.1 percent and substitute respondents were 11.9 percent.

Not only affects the presidential election, but swing voters filled with millennials also influence legislative elections. Based on the national survey of Charta Politika Indonesia on April 4, revealing their party identification with political parties was very weak, only around 11.7 percent.

The poll results also revealed the most swing voters experienced by the Demokrat party (51 percent), then followed by Amanat Nasional party (50 percent), Persatuan Pembangunan and Hanura party (47 percent respectively), Gerakan Indonesia Raya party  (45 percent) and Golkar (38 percent). The parties with the least swing voters are Keadilan Sejahtera party (20 percent) and Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan party (23 percent).

Written by Lexy Nantu, Email: lexy@theinsiderstories.com