Presidential Election 2019: Widodo vs Subianto Rematchs

President Joko Widodo engages in light discussion with the Head of Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto at State Palace last year - Photo by President Office.

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – The incumbent President Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto will race again in presidential election in 2019, repeated the 2014 presidential election battle. But this time the battle is different from 2014 because Widodo has a stronger weapon than Subianto as the ruling party.

As we know, chairman of Gerindra Party Subianto has expressed his readiness when given the mandate by his party to run for president in the 2019 presidential election. Followed the announcement, in weeks, Keadilan Sejahtera Party (PKS) and Amanat Nasional Party (PAN) given their support to Subianto. And last night, Democrat Party joined his coalition.

Based on research from survey institutions like Indicator, Cyrus Network, Poltracking, Lembaga Survey Indonesia (LSI) and others, Widodo are superior to Subianto.

Poltracking conducted a survey related to the 2019 presidential election on Jan. 27 to Feb. 3, 2018 ago. In the survey using the stratified multistage random sampling method, the y said Widodo’s electability was at the top with 51.1 percent while Subianto 26.1 percent.

The same figures showed by the Cyrus survey, was conducted on March 27 to April 3. Cyrus’s survey described the Widodo’s electability is at 58.5 percent compared to Subianto is 21.8 percent.

Meawhile, The Indonesian Political Indicator released the results of a survey conducted on March 25 to 31, 2018, the electability of Widodo is at 51.9 percent higher than his contender Subianto 19.2 percent.

Charta Politika Indonesia’s Executive Director Yunarto Wijaya predicts Subianto’s position will be difficult in the face of President Widodo in the 2019 presidential election. He said, Subianto’s position would be more profitable to become a “king maker” by applying another candidate.

For an example, he explained, former National Commander-in-Chief (Ret.) Gatot Nurmantyo and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan. Later, they were touted as strong candidates for Subianto’s companion.

Yunarto said, although the electability of Nurmantyo and Baswedan is still low, but he considered both have a shock effect that is not owned by Subianto. He pointed out how Anies was able to defeat Basuki Tjahaja Purnama in the 2017 Jakarta Regional Head Election. The ‘fresh’ factor has been lost from Subianto with a double failure experienced by two elections, he added.

LSI survey also echoed Charta Politica survey. The surveyor released the results of the strongest opponent for Widodo in 2019 presidential election are Subianto, Nurmantyo and Baswedan.

The survey involving 1,200 respondents was held post-regional election on June 28 to July 5, 2018 using multistage random sampling method. In the survey, the electability of Subiantoas a candidate will rise if accompanied by Nurmantyo.

Prabowo-Nurmantyo is considered capable of obtaining electability 35.6 percent whereas if paired with Baswedan at 19.6 percent. Meanwhile, if Prabowo juxtaposed with Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), he can gain 12.3 percent electability and with former West Java Governor Ahmad Heryawan has 10.2 percent.

In addition, if Baswedan joined with AHY is considered able to boost electability up to 33.4 percent followed by Baswedan – Heryawan’s pair with elektability 27.4 percent and Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar (chairman of Kebangkitan Bangsa Party) with electability 23.4 percent.

For us, the strong candidate for Widodo’s vice president candidates is Mahfud MD, former chairman of Constitutional Court and for Subianto, Ani Yudhoyono, SBY’s wife. The other factors to watch is how to grab millenial’s vote, caused the beginner voters tend to choose Subianto rather than Widodo.

Email: linda.silaen@theinsiderstories