The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members are counting on lower prices to drive strong demand in 2016. OPEC’s report said demand would grow about 1.25 million barrels a day, unchanged from its previous forecasts. That is down from 1.53 million barrels a day of growth in 2015. The organization, which pumps about a third of the world’s crude, said in its monthly market report that its total production rose in November by 230,100 barrels a day from October, to 31.695 million barrels a day, driven mainly by record output from Iraq. November’s total output is almost 900,000 barrels a day more than the demand for OPEC crude next year. Oil prices fell further on Thursday, with Brent crude LCOF6, -0.67% dropping below $40 a barrel and the U.S. benchmark CLF6, -0.22% trading below $37 a barrel—both down more than 60% from highs in 2014. The report is OPEC’s first since it abandoned its production target of 30 million barrels a day at its meeting last week and doubled down on its decision last year to pump aggressively in the face of falling oil prices. The group’s report on Thursday signaled that plan had shown some success in driving out American production that requires higher prices, but the market overall hasn’t recovered. OPEC trimmed its estimates for supplies from outside the group in 2016 on Thursday as it expects the plunge in prices to takes its toll on the U.S. oil industry and other rival producers in the coming months.