JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Good Morning! This week will see policy and politics dominating the agenda, following a week in which the business surveys provided key updates on the health of the global economy mid-way through the fourth quarter.
With signs that the recent easing of monetary policy from around the world has helped stem the global slowdown. The coming week sees policy decisions from the Federal Reserves (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB). Although both are expected to keep rates on hold, the economic projections and rhetoric will be scrutinized for clues as to future policy direction.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fed officials begin a two-day meeting. Recently the central bank lowered its short-term benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point at its previous three meetings to provide a cushion for the United States (US) economy amid a broader global slowdown.
On Thursday, ECB is expected to leave policy unchanged after the first meeting of its governing council under the new presidency of Christine Lagarde. With some signs of stabilization in the eurozone economy after a slowdown, she isn’t expected to flag a further cut in the already-negative policy interest rate or an increase in bond purchases, and may instead give more weight to the need to monitor the negative side effects of those policies.
At the same day, America will get its own inflation data. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast the index rose 0.2 percent in November from the previous month and 2.0 percent . In October, the index rose 0.4 percent over the previous month and 1.8 percent from the prior year.
Then, the Commerce Department releases figures on November retail sales. Consumer spending has helped bolster the US economy this year. Economists expect retail sales rose 0.5 percent in November from October.
In Asia Pacific, a raft of data for China, Japan and Taiwan will be eyed for signs of economic trends. In the run-up to China’ annual Central Economic Work Conference, analysts will inspect forthcoming data for the likelihood of announcements of further stimulus measures at the meeting. Policy action will come from the Philippines, while a speech from central bank governor Philip Lowe will be parsed for clues about future policy direction.
China will releases inflation data on Friday, which has been complicating its central bank’ policy easing efforts. The country’ consumer price-index likely grew 4.4 percent in November from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.8 percent gain in October. The producer-price index likely dropped by 1.5 percent, slipping for five months in a row, according to the same poll.
During the week, trade wars remain a key concern for the global outlook, and escalating tensions could set back the nascent improvement in the global growth trend. Developments in US trade with China, with new tariffs on Chinese goods set to kick-in on Dec. 15, will therefore be closely watched.
Brexit is also high on the list of global worries, and the upcoming UK general election on 12 December will be a key development in determining the outlook for the Britain’ departure from the European Union. The Leaders’ Summit will also be monitored for Brexit-related developments.
In the country, Bank Indonesia to announces the retail sales survey in October on Tuesday. Last September the position lowered to 0.7 percent from August at 1.1 percent.
Today, Bank Indonesia’ governor Perry Warjiyo and deputy finance minister, Suahasil Nazara are scheduled to deliver their speech at one seminar. Then the state-owned lender PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (IDX: BMRI) will hold an shareholders meeting to appoints new CEO.
In addition, Financial Services Authority press briefing on Islamic banks and coordinating minister for maritime and investment affairs, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan will hold a lithium battery development meeting. Furthermore, this morning, minister of trade Agus Suparmanto opened the e-commerce forum, while the ministry of communication and information discussion about palm oil and B30 biofuel mandate.
Last week, Indonesian Rupiah edge up to 14,023 against the US Dollar and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) also closed up 0.56 percent at 6,186.87. Today, the analysts sees the local currency move in the range 13,980 to 14,150 versus the American Dollar and the stock index between 6,089 – 6,261.
The stock to be watch for today are PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (IDX: TLKM), PT Jasa Marga Tbk (IDX: JSMR), PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (IDX: AKRA), PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (IDX: SMRA), PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (IDX: PWON), PT Alam Sutera Realty (IDX: ASRI), PT Sri Rejeki Isman (IDX: SRIL), PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (IDX: KLBF), PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (IDX: INDF), and PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (IDX: BBCA).
May you have a profitable week!
Written by Linda Silaen and TIS Intelligence Team, Please Read Our Insight to Get More information about Indonesia