JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Researcher from Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia (LIPI), Aisyah Putri Budiatri, reminded the potential for voters migration ahead of the election day on April 17, 2019.
She said, neither Joko Widodo – Ma’aruf Amin nor Prabowo Subianto – Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno, have shown any differences in the program which is so contrasting that it is very difficult to win swing voters who haven’t made a choice.
Budiarti’ argument rests on the results of the Research and Development Kompas survey last week. As a result, the electability distance between the two candidate pairs was thinner at 11.8 per cent. Widodo-Amin led with 49.2 per cent, Subianto-Uno with 37.4 per cent. Otherwise, 13.4 per cent of respondents stated secrets.
This figure has decreased significantly from the previous survey in October 2018. At that time the electability distance was both at 19.9 per cent. The incumbent pocketed 52.6 per cent and opposition 32.7 per cent, while 14.7 per cent of respondents stated secrets.
Budiarti said the decline in electability was incumbent because the success team was lulled by the many declarations of support. Success Team is considered not to pay attention to strength at the grassroots.
“Even though the support declaration is not yet clear, the extent to which it can be converted into votes,” she said.
The successful team and presidential candidate pair, he said, should make a move with more massive campaign activities. He added that the debate over the three issues brought was all close to the problems of the community, but the discussion was still on the surface.
There is no more detailed explanation. She stated, “Its very important to make the campaign program more detailed and make it reach a broad range.”
Another thing that can win the presidential election is that the campaign team must be able to ensure the prospective voters come to the polling station. The number of abstentions in the 2019 Presidential Election is predicted by a number of survey institutions in the range of 15-20 per cent.
A number which, according to Budiarti, is very significant to get a victory. If for example, one pair can win the heart of the abstentions, the number of migration of his voice can be very much, she said.
She explained that the 2009 and 2014 presidential elections showed high rates of abstentions. The number of abstentions in the 2014 presidential election reached 26 per cent.
“Now this is rather contrasting to the undecided voters categorized by many survey institutions at that time, only 10-15 per cent, even lower than that,” she added.
At that time half of the voters didn’t come to the polling station. Even though according to the survey the respondents chose one of the candidates. Important lessons can be taken from the United States Election, namely the election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Clinton lost because his loyal voters did not come to the polling station. Already sure to win is the mistake of the Clinton success team, she added.
The same thing was revealed by researchers of the PARA Syndicate Arie Nurcahyo. According to him, the declaration of support is like a storefront that is only visible on the surface.
While the most important is the condition of the kitchen. So far, incumbents have also been lulled by celebrations of support, which do not necessarily have a significant impact on electability, he said.
According to Nurcahyo, there are several ways that incumbents can maintain their votes, including by offering novelty and programs that promise change. On the contrary, the opposition camp should be an opportunity to offer better things, he explained.
This opposition opportunity is supported by the character of the electoral militancy that is stronger than the incumbent’s supporters. He continued, if it did not succeed in compensating for the militancy, the incumbent’s position could potentially be rocked even by the opposition. He considered the Widodo camp using the wrong strategy by fighting militancy with unequal militancy. “A better strategy should be with creativity,” he said.
Kompas researcher Toto Suryaningtyas said the militancy of Subianto’s supporters was also photographed while conducting the survey. However, he said, the level of militancy was not measured by numbers.
Suryaningtyas revealed the reasons for opposition voters were more militant because the narrative created was more striking. He added that the factor for the vice presidential candidate also helped boost the electability of Widodo and Subianto. From the survey mentioned, Uno has more role in Subianto’ electability than Amin to Widodo.
As many as 89.7 percents of respondents supporting incumbents stated that they were more confident in choosing Widodo who was paired with Amin. Meanwhile, 92.6 per cent of opposition supporters said they were confident of choosing Subianto after pairing up with Uno.
In the Subianto – Uno voter group, 16.7 per cent of respondents chose because of the Uno factor. Whereas in the Widodo-Amin voter group, the choice based on the Amin factor was only 5.4 per cent.
Written by Lexy Nantu, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org