Indonesia’s ten-Parties Predicts Unqualify in 2019 General Election
The 16-parties that participating in 2019 General Election.

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – An Indonesian credible media, Kompas through its Research and Development Agency survey on Feb. 22 to March 5, 2019 showed that there were ten political parties participating in the 2019 General Election threatened not to pass the Parliament’s threshold of 4 percent. The five parties among the ten parties are old parties, while the other five parties are newcomers, according to the Kompas report today (03/21).

The survey explained, even though the five old parties had seats in the current Parliament and supported candidates for President and Vice President Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin, it was considered to have failed to maintain the loyalty of its constituents.

The Hati Nurani Rakyat Party (Hanura) even won 5.3 percent of votes in the 2014 election, but the party which had once been led by Wiranto was threatened with no more striding to Senayan because only 0.9 percent was chosen by respondents. Meanwhile, the Keadilan dan Persatuan Indoensia Party (PKPI) only gained 0.2 percent.

The other three parties are the Amanat Nasional Party (PAN) of 2.9 percent, the Persatuan Pembangunan Party (PPP) 2.7 percent, and the Nasional Demokrat Party (Nasdem) 2.6 percent.

However, these three parties are estimated to be able to meet the threshold if added to the level of margin of error +/-2.2 percent.

Furthermore, the survey found that there were five newcomer parties that had not been able to delegitimize the dominance of old parties. They are the Bulan Bintang Party (PBB) 0.4 percent, the Persatuan Indonesia Party (Perindo) 1.5 percent, the Solidaritas Indonesia Party (PSI) 0.9 percent, the Berkarya Party 0.5 percent, and the Garuda Party 0.2 percent.

With the calculation of the sampling error rate of +/-2.2 percent, these parties will still find it difficult to meet the minimum parliamentary threshold.

From the results of the survey, it was found that seven political parties that did not qualify for Senayan were parties supporting the Widodo-Amin pair. The seven parties are PPP, Nasdem, Hanura, Perindo, PSI, PKPI, and the PBB.

On the other side, the six old parties are still too powerful on the national political stage as indicated by the survey. The two old parties, namely the Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan Party (PDI-P) to gain respondents’ trust by 26.9 percent, while the Golongan Karya Party (Golkar) was 9.4 percent.

Meanwhile, the Gerakan Indonesia Raya Party (Gerindra) owned by President Candidate Prabowo Subianto to gain a vote of 17.0 percent, the Kebangkitan Bangsa Party (PKB) 6.8 percent, and the Demokrat Party (Demokrat) by 4.6 percent, and the Keadilan Sejahtera Party (PKS) 4.5 percent.

Looking at the trustworthiness of these parties, it has the potential to create new regulations to simplify the party system in Indonesia. In addition to increasing the parliamentary threshold from 3.5 percent in the 2014 election, this simplification can also be caused by a tail coat effect that is only felt by some political parties.

In the 2014 election, there were 10 political parties that passed the parliamentary threshold or won seats in the Parliament, from legitimate national votes. This election was attended by 16 national political parties, while the 2014 election was followed by 12 national political parties.

In addition, there is a tendency for small and medium-sized political parties not to have a tail-suit effect or a positive relationship between the electoral power of candidates promoted in the presidential election and their supporting parties, for example the seven parties supporting Widodo-Amin and Democratic Party that supporting Prabowo-Sandiaga.

Therefore, with the current electoral system, parties will experience natural selection to seriously manage cadres and work programs to be offered to the public.

However, the simplification of party quantities due to simultaneous new elections can be assessed when the electoral system is simultaneously applied several times. Even simultaneous elections can be a natural selection process to reduce the number of parties in each election, even though election laws in Indonesia always change every five years.

Previously, the Central Java Election Supervisory Agency decided the declaration of the victory of presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate Widodo-Amin by Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and 31 regional leaders violated the rules in the declaration of Widodo-Amin’s win in Solo, Central Java, on January 26, 2019.

According to the Agency, violations of 32 regional heads were not based on campaign rules, but related to neutrality as regional heads as stipulated in Law Number 9 of 2015 concerning the Second Amendment to Law Number 23 Year 2014 concerning Regional Government.

In the regulation, the government should show a neutral attitude that should be used for the sake of administering regional government only and not for the political interests of one group or group.

Written by Daniel Deha, Email: daniel@theinsiderstories.com