Last May, the government officially submitted state revenue and expenditure budget draft for 2020 to House of Representatives. In the draft, macro assumptions set are not much changing compared to the challenging 2019.
In the macro assumption, the government set 2020’ economic growth 5.3 – 5.6 percent. This is not so different compared to the government’ macro assumption stated in 2019 state revenue and expenditure budget draft, at 5.3 percent.
The inflation is projected to be maintained at 3 percent, with 1 percent deviation each for below and above from 2019 at around 3 to 4 percent. Indrawati estimated the rate for 3 months letter of the state treasury at 5 percent to 5.6 percent. In the 2019 draft, it was set at 5.3 percent.
Rupiah against US dollar is set at Rp14,000-15,000 in 2020, amid the fear of global uncertainty. In the state budget of 2019, the government set the Rupiah assumption at Rp14,400.
Then, Indrawati didn’t set an optimistic target for the oil and gas. Indonesia Crude Price is predicted in a range of US$60 – $70 per barrel. The target for both oil and gas lifting are set to be lowered. She mentioned that oil lifting is projected to be 695,000 to 840,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, the gas lifting is estimated at 1.19 million to 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
In 2019, ICP is predicted at US$70 per barrel. Furthermore, oil lifting is estimated at 750,000 barrels per day, with gas lifting at 1.25 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Indrawati considered that external factor is still the main consideration in establishing the macro assumptions. Especially, the trade war between the United States and China has been burdening the world’s economy, while the end of it is still unclear until now.
“We must increase awareness for the slowdown in external factors reflected in the weakening of national export growth,” she said.
Previously, the ministry reported that the realization of state expenditure for the 2019 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget in the first quarter (1Q) reached Rp452.1 trillion, equivalent to 18.37 percent of the 2019 State Budget ceiling, which amounted to Rp2,461.11 trillion.
On an annual basis, state expenditure in 1Q grew 7.7 percent compared to the same period last year. The growth of state expenditure is supported by the absorption of central government spending by Rp260.7 trillion or growing 11.4 percent year on year (YoY).
The realization of central government expenditure consists of ministry and agency expenditures of Rp128.8 trillion and non-ministerial and institutional spending of Rp 132 trillion.
“Overall, central government expenditure has fulfilled 16 percent of the stipulated ceiling, which is worth Rp1,634.34 trillion for 2019,” it said on its latest report in April.
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