Jokow Widodo versus Prabowo Subianto - Photo: Privacy

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – The latest survey by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) and Research and Development (R&D) Kompas showed that Joko Widodo – Ma’ruf Amin could be loss in the presidential election if the undecided voter numbers go higher.

R&D Kompas showed a thin difference of 11.8 percent with incumbents of 47.02 percent compared to 37.4 percent of the opposition. While, LSI noted that Widodo – Amin was superior with 58.7 percent compared to 30.9 percent to his opponent Prabowo Subianto – Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno.

Despite expressing excellence, incumbents will be threatened by the high number of groups who undecided voter or “white group” in the 2019 presidential election. Groups will greatly determine which contestants can win the contestation.

In fact, LSI researcher Ikrama Masloman said, it was possible for Widodo to be defeated by Subianto if the incumbent did not succeed in managing voter participation. He said the current electability gap between Widodo and Subianto was no greater than the 2014 abstention rate.

“The 2014 abstention rate was 30.42 percent. While the electability difference between the two candidates was 27.8 percent,” he said in Jakarta on Tuesday (03/19).

LSI predicts that the number of abstentions in the 2019 presidential election will increase compared to the 2014 presidential election. The prediction is based on the LSI scientific results which show a month or so before the 2019 presidential election.

Of those who know that the presidential election will be held in April 2019, 75.8 percent can answer correctly that the date of the presidential election is April 17, 2019.

“It means that in total population, only 49.4 percent of Indonesian voters are informed and answer correctly that the implementation of the presidential and election will take place on April 17, 2019,” said Masloman.

In addition to the lack of information, the strengthening of identity and hoax political sentiments is predicted to increase the number of abstentions in the 2019 presidential election. Voters are saturated with the polarization that occurs, so the tendency of abstentions is getting higher, he added.

General Election Commission data shows that in the last three elections, the number of abstentions was quite varied, around 23 percent to 30 percent. In the 2004 general election, those with abstentions were 23.3 percent.

In the 2009 election, those with abstentions were 27.45 percent. And in the 2014 elections, those with abstentions were 30.42 percent. In the last three elections, there was a tendency to increase the number of those who abstained. Even in 2019, we predict the number of abstentions will increase with all the limitations of the information, he added.

Meanwhile, the Executive Director of the Indikator Politik Indonesian Burhanuddin Muhtadi said that the potential of the people whose future abstentions would continue to increase could even reach 30 percent. This figure is obtained from the number of people who have decided abstentions plus those who have not been undecided voters.

The survey recorded the number of undecided voters currently reaching 19.2 percent. This figure is also estimated to increase from the swing voters’ contribution of around 14 percent.

“The potential is at least 30 percent of abstentions voters, at least if they reflect on the previous experience. Abstentions have the potential to increase because there are still people who consider elections not to have an impact on their lives. Many of them are apathetic so they prefer to use the voting time for a vacation rather than a polling station,” he said.

Political analyst from Exposit Strategic Arif Susanto, added that the community with abstentions could increase from the incumbent supporters. They were disappointed with the Widodo government they had supported in 2014.

The incumbent was supported because it was expected to be able to accommodate progressive agendas, one of which was related to resolving cases of human rights violations and economic improvement. However, Widodo’ various agendas seem to have been resolved.

“There is certainly disappointment among incumbent voters especially considering Widodo’s very progressive agenda in 2014,” he said.

The LSI academic results were held at the end of February 2019. The survey was conducted on February 18-25 2019 through face to face interviews using questionnaires. The survey uses a multistage random sampling method with 1200 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The survey was conducted in 34 provinces in Indonesia.

While the Litbang Kompas survey was held on February 22-March 5 2019 involving 2,000 respondents who were randomly selected using a systematic multilevel sampling method in 34 Indonesian provinces. The survey margin of error is plus-minus 2.2 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.

Written by Lexy Nantu, Email: lexy@theinsiderstories.com

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