CSIS Survey: Incumbent Electability Tends to Decrease
The researchers are presenting the results of the survey. Photo by TheInsiderStories.

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) –  The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released the results of the electability survey of Joko Widodo – Ma’ruf Amin and Prabowo Subianto – Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno ahead of the 2019 Presidential Election. Although still superior, the downward trend in electability still haunted incumbents.

CSIS photographed Widodo – Amin‘ electability at 51.4 percent compared to 33.3 percent belonging to Subianto – Uno. The difference between them is at 18.1 percent. The remaining 14.1 percent are not answered or confidential and there is also 1.2 percent who have not made a choice.

The downward trend of incumbents was taken from the results of several survey institutions in the past two months: SMRC (57.6 percent vs. 31.8 percent), New Indonesia Research & Consulting (55.8 percent vs. 34.3 percent), Alvara Research Center (53.9 percent vs. 34.7 percent), Indo Barometer (50.2 percent vs 28.9 percent), Compass Research and Development (49.2 percent vs. 37.4 percent).

“The pair’ electability range ranges from 49.19 percent to 53.16 for Widodo-Amin and Subianto – Uno in the range of 31.09 percent to 35.51 percent,” explained CSIS researcher Arya Fernandez in Jakarta on Thursday (03/28).

CSIS also surveyed the level of stability of voters to two candidates. As a result, incumbent voters amounted to 84.4 percent, which answered the possibility of change was 15.6 percent. Whereas opposition voter stability is at 81.3 percent and those who answer the possibility change by 18.7 percent.

“The level of stability of voter choice is quite high. The voter migration between candidates is predicted not to occur much. In each candidate, the voting loyalty rate is above 80 percent,” he said.

Fernandez revealed numbers that were not answered or confidential were still quite large. They may already have a choice. But he is not open in conveying his political choices.

The agency did not know the exact reason for the high number of respondents who did not answer or were confidential. “However, from our survey, it was captured, they were dominated by a segment of urban voters,” he added.

The opposition supporters bag mainly comes from voters with higher education at 42.5 percent compared to 35.2 percent of the incumbent. But Widodo excelled in low education voters (57.3 percent versus 28.0 percent belonging to Subianto), medium (45.8 percent versus 39.9 percent).

In terms of region, the opposition only excelled in Sumatra by 49.6 percent vs 37.3 percent of incumbent voters. Other regions such as Jakarta were surpassed by Widodo with a ratio of 38.8 percent vs 30.0 percent, West Java and Banten 47.4 percent vs 42.1 percent.

Then, Central Java and Yogyakarta 70.0 percent vs 13.9 percent, East Java 49.1 percent vs 23.1 percent, Kalimantan 64.6 percent vs 33.8 percent, Sulawesi 47.9 percent vs 37.9 percent, Nusa Tenggara and Bali 66.3 percent vs 24.8 percent, Maluku and Papua 58.6 percent vs 27.1 percent.

The CSIS survey also shows the level of electability of political parties. It is predicted that the top three parties will be filled by Demokrasi Indonesia Perjungan party (25.9 percent), Gerakan Indonesia Raya party (13.3 percent), Golongan Karya party (9.4 percent).

Furthermore, Kebangkitan Bangsa 7 percent, Demokrat 5.5 percent, Kesejahteraan Sosial 4.6 percent, Nasdem 4.3 percent, Persatuan Pembangunan 3 percent, Amanat Nasional 2.5 percent, Perindo 1.1 percent, Hanura 0.8 percent, Solidaritas Indonesia 0.5 percent, Bulan Bintang 0.4 percent, PKPI 0.2 percent, Garuda 0.1 percent, Berkarya 0.1 percent, not chosen 3.2 percent, no answer or secret 18.2 percent.

Changes in voter support and obtaining party votes, especially in middle and small parties, are estimated to still be possible. This was influenced by the high number of respondents who kept their choices secret when the survey was conducted.

The campaign and mobility of legislative candidates during this open campaign period are expected to make the contestation change. This survey also shows the migration of votes based on religious parties to nationalist based parties.

Nationalist party voters’ loyalty was higher (83.4 percent) than religion-based parties (68.3 percent). This transition of support occurred because of the simultaneous presidential and legislative elections so that the votes of religious party voters were sucked into parties associated with certain presidential candidates.

Opportunities for winning candidates in elections will be influenced by several factors. First, the ability of candidates to mobilize voter support to polling stations. This is important because around 7 percent of the total population (more than 13 million voters) will plan a holiday during the election on April 17, 2019.

Second, the ability of candidates to increase support from coalition parties. In terms of political parties, there can be categorized as two models of support loyalty, namely the type of party with voter loyalty to candidate pairs above 60 percent, namely PDIP, Golkar, PKB, Nasdem, PKPI, PBB, and PSI for incumbent pairs, and Gerindra, PKS, Berkarya, Democrats for opposition pairs.

Another type is parties with loyalty support below 60 percent, namely Perindo, PPP and Hanura for incumbents, PAN for the opposition.

The survey was conducted in the period of March 15-22 2019. The margin of error was approximately minus 2.21 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.

The survey uses quantitative research methods with a sample of 1,960 respondents randomly selected representing 34 provinces. Data collection is done by face-to-face interviews using questionnaires. The survey population is all voters who have the right to vote in the 2019 Election or who are 17 years old or above or married when the survey was conducted.

Written by Lexy Nantu, Email: lexy@theinsiderstories.com