JAKARTA (TIS Intelligence) – Tension in Indonesian politic is heating up after the start of 2019 Presidential Election phases. Indonesian society has been polarized into two camps, following respective camps declare their own candidates.If there is no obstacle, Joko Widodo – Maruf Amin and Prabowo Subianto -Sandiaga Uno will face each other to fight for people votes.
Regardless on who will win the 2019 election and who will be inaugurated as president and vice president, all stage of presidential election should ran smooth, safe and in order.
The vulnerability of security and threats ahead of 2019 Presidential Election should be detected and prevented earlier. The security officer need to provide strategy to close all vulnerable security loophole and prevent the threat. By detecting the vulnerability and potential threats, 2019 election will run smoothly , safe and in order.
The prediction of vulnerabilities in presidential elections are : first , related to the final voter list. In accuracy of the final voter list is a vulnerable
loophole for conflicts. Dissatisfactions of certain parties , mainly those who are defeated or disadvantage by the result can incite conflict.
The issue of inaccuracy of final voters list is being blew up now as a justification for those who are defeated in 2019 election that the result of the 2019 election is full of troubles.
Regardless of the issues, those who manage the final voters list like Indonesia Election Commision (IEC) and Domestic Affairs Ministry must ensure that the final voter list is free of irregularities including the double population data.
The second vulnerability in 2019 election is logistic issue. Unpreparedness, delay and the lack of logistic is a loophole of vulnerability for 2019 presidential election.
A troubled logistic will make certain parties dissatisfied. The dissatisfaction in certain scale can incite conflict. Some challenges like geographical conditions and the broad area of Indonesia should be considered seriously to manage the issue of logistic in 2019 presidential election.
The third issue is the neutrality of security officer, civil servant and election organizers like election commission and election supervisory body. If in 2019 election, the security officer, civil servant and election organizers can not show their neutrality, it can be a chance for certain parties to express their dissatisfaction.
The fourth issue is security factors. In some of areas with good access for security officers, security is not a big deal. But in retrieve areas, there is a high concern on security. More vulnerable the system of security, the more loophole for threats.
Potential threats in 2019 election are first conflict caused by dissatisfaction on the election result. This threat can be prevented if some issues like the inaccuracy of final voters lists, logistic issue and the neutrality of security officers, civil servants, and election organizers can be resolved.
The government can close all loopholes that can resolved by the government and election organizers. Do not let the issue unresolved because they can be triggers for conflict or can used as strategy to start a conflict.
Second threat is sabotage. The existence of the parties who oppose 2019 presidential election should be considered mainly those who are not agree with Indonesia ‘s democratic system or the parties who want to downgrade the existence of the unitary state of Indonesia. This threat can take place of there is looseness of security and the existence of trigger that can incite the parties to have a reaction.
The other threat is infiltration from banned groups in Indonesia. By joining official political parties or coalition of supporters of president and vice president candidates, the groups have a place to exists. There is a posibility that certain political parties use the the groups as attraction to mobilize massive supports. This issue should be aware.
2019 presidential election can be manipulated by certain parties on pretext of democratic freedom to advance certain interest. They use some vulnerability and weak monitoring and security to show their existence by manipulating democratic freedom. The security and intelligent officers measures to ban declaration by groups who are against the Pancasila, hopefully can maintain the security ahead of 2019 Election based on Pancasila democracy.
From the explanation above, we can concluded that there are four issues in 2019 election, namely inaccuracy of final voter list, logistic issue, neutrality of the security officers, civil servants, and election organizer and the last thing is security system.
The possible threats are conlict incited by dissatisfaction of presidential election result, sabotage, and infiltration from banned group who are trying to manipulate 2019 election.
Proposed strategy to close the loophole of vulnerability and to prevent the threat are first , ensuring that the final voter list has been right , second, the logistic is ready and can be distributed on time and safe. Beside that, the security officers, civil servants, and election organizers should do their jobs in neutrality and professionalism .
And finally, the government, in this context, the police, the military and state intelligence can establish a good security system to prevent sabotage, infiltration and other security threats.
Written by Stanislaus Riyanta, TIS Intelligence Expert and Doctoral Student at University of Indonesia